{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41552133-bbd6-40f1-8cb8-355fd9ada31d", "symbol": "300651", "name": "Jiangsu Jinling Sports Equipment Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.203, "architecture_energy": 68.221, "architecture_maturity": 32.306, "architecture_confidence": 90.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.01, "rotation_up": 22.39, "upward_expansion": 15.06, "deceleration": 42.94, "rotation_down": 59.12, "downward_expansion": 88.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.683333, 17.289624, 21.087165, 23.181052 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 17.27, "trend_reference": 24.891935, "distance_from_trend": -0.306201, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 18.785902, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.080694, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.623147, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296502, "excess_performance": -0.303902, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.306201, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041987, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.080694, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.811394, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296231, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.396312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296502, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.597658, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30711202, "relative_activity": 0.529103, "balance": 1.597658, "dry_up": 0.718506, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.186924, "annualized_volatility": 0.742487, "from_high_reference": -0.545734, "from_low_reference": 0.234453 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 24.891935, "fair_value_reference": 18.785902, "structural_low": 13.99, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.004167, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.009583, "regime_survival": 0.821429, "best_return": 0.211699, "worst_return": -0.292829, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00877, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.026649, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.247908, "worst_return": -0.376027, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.081244, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.14401, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": -0.020468, "worst_return": -0.325571, "sufficient": true }, { 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{ "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 15.7, "volume": 24501990, "typical_volume": 58321159.05, "trend": 25.298721, "fair_value": 18.966975, "relative_strength": -35.192687, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.577361, "energy": 85.753796, "activity_lines": [ 17.084, 19.274118, 23.538145, 24.808891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.059999, "volume": 63328801, "typical_volume": 59372663.5, "trend": 25.119419, "fair_value": 18.897159, "relative_strength": -33.258791, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.444077, "energy": 80.321151, "activity_lines": [ 16.532, 18.221463, 22.596736, 24.212844 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.85, "volume": 48277423, "typical_volume": 59616246.9, "trend": 24.993361, "fair_value": 18.83728, "relative_strength": -28.263237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.430222, "energy": 80.546897, "activity_lines": [ 16.508666, 17.640919, 21.796474, 23.679333 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.27, "volume": 30711202, "typical_volume": 58043864.6, "trend": 24.891935, "fair_value": 18.785902, "relative_strength": -29.623147, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.203042, "energy": 68.220858, "activity_lines": [ 16.683333, 17.289624, 21.087165, 23.181052 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }