{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41581601-1173-4836-9815-0ae437130fe8", "symbol": "GEVO", "name": "Gevo Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.146, "architecture_energy": 23.256, "architecture_maturity": 77.026, "architecture_confidence": 75.526, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.48, "rotation_up": 26.93, "upward_expansion": 19.79, "deceleration": 46.05, "rotation_down": 29.05, "downward_expansion": 58.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.557, 1.524091, 1.603738, 1.713086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.57, "trend_reference": 1.8315, "distance_from_trend": -0.142779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.450193, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.082615, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.547035, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.17801, "excess_performance": -0.365464, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.142779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098449, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.082615, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.186016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.29547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.116867, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.17801, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.123301, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20792006, "relative_activity": 1.125081, "balance": 1.123301, "dry_up": 1.096683, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.13708, "annualized_volatility": 0.680586, "from_high_reference": -0.47138, "from_low_reference": 0.34188 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.8315, "fair_value_reference": 1.450193, "structural_low": 1.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.007874, "positive_rate": 0.512821, "directional_follow_through": 0.487179, "median_excess_return": -0.04505, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.459215, "worst_return": -0.278256, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.116, "positive_rate": 0.230769, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.124038, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 3.882877, "worst_return": -0.322115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.190244, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.116678, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 2.269841, "worst_return": -0.437607, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.126923, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.242718, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.21875, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.170068, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.466102, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.495448, "energy": 68.750435, "activity_lines": [ 1.438, 1.520636, 1.693262, 1.789366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.63, "volume": 22009425, "typical_volume": 19438923.85, "trend": 1.879667, "fair_value": 1.450994, "relative_strength": -24.025799, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.905708, "energy": 53.62978, "activity_lines": [ 1.501333, 1.526727, 1.673024, 1.772118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.625, "volume": 24807840, "typical_volume": 19224719.7, "trend": 1.864833, "fair_value": 1.450898, "relative_strength": -22.919582, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.089252, "energy": 32.391998, "activity_lines": [ 1.547667, 1.535545, 1.653214, 1.755688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.48, "volume": 13459534, "typical_volume": 18371878.1, "trend": 1.8455, "fair_value": 1.450321, "relative_strength": -30.15523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.184963, "energy": 29.69928, "activity_lines": [ 1.54, 1.519, 1.622048, 1.73086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.57, "volume": 20792006, "typical_volume": 18480457.9, "trend": 1.8315, "fair_value": 1.450193, "relative_strength": -29.547035, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.145833, "energy": 23.255905, "activity_lines": [ 1.557, 1.524091, 1.603738, 1.713086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }