{ "ticker": { "uuid": "415df1de-f1b8-438c-bb1b-a545b7c75a99", "symbol": "VEVE", "name": "Vanguard FTSE Developed World UCITS ETF USD Distributing", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 74.789, "architecture_energy": 46.356, "architecture_maturity": 61.751, "architecture_confidence": 87.543, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.87, "rotation_up": 40.98, "upward_expansion": 71.13, "deceleration": 94.25, "rotation_down": 29.16, "downward_expansion": 11.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 106.101999, 106.061672, 105.064942, 103.173232 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 108.419998, "trend_reference": 100.892376, "distance_from_trend": 0.07461, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 83.770858, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294245, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.625755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125232, "excess_performance": 0.073997, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07461, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0374, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294245, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021495, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026258, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019578, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125232, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.648731, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123598, "relative_activity": 1.236325, "balance": 1.648731, "dry_up": 1.178386, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021167, "annualized_volatility": 0.122653, "from_high_reference": -0.006961, "from_low_reference": 0.238068 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.892376, "fair_value_reference": 83.770858, "structural_low": 91.519997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.055723, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.042765, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.072135, "worst_return": -0.007929, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.048548, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.005101, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.123513, "worst_return": 0.013796, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.083809, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.028759, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125933, "worst_return": 0.041684, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 4.670458, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.641962, "energy": 64.88215, "activity_lines": [ 106.466153, 106.050641, 103.547226, 101.711555 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 104.559998, "volume": 141225, "typical_volume": 108143.15, "trend": 99.86953, "fair_value": 82.992109, "relative_strength": 1.887156, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.40027, "energy": 50.183726, "activity_lines": [ 105.858666, 105.884357, 103.868954, 102.034216 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 105.330002, "volume": 86379, "typical_volume": 101763.95, "trend": 100.205975, "fair_value": 83.242885, "relative_strength": 1.302895, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.998435, "energy": 43.531186, "activity_lines": [ 105.553333, 105.815752, 104.236476, 102.386504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.5, "volume": 120021, "typical_volume": 100284.3, "trend": 100.51974, "fair_value": 83.492554, "relative_strength": -0.72617, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.941413, "energy": 31.995513, "activity_lines": [ 105.122667, 105.579354, 104.485718, 102.663538 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 108.419998, "volume": 123598, "typical_volume": 99972.1, "trend": 100.892376, "fair_value": 83.770858, "relative_strength": 2.625755, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 74.788806, "energy": 46.355642, "activity_lines": [ 106.101999, 106.061672, 105.064942, 103.173232 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }