{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41618bb2-1580-44b3-b0e3-56a760d8b6dd", "symbol": "JPE3", "name": "WisdomTree Short JPY Long EUR 3x Daily", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.425, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 7.264, "architecture_energy": 9.069, "architecture_maturity": 33.967, "architecture_confidence": 69.707, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.77, "rotation_up": 21.83, "upward_expansion": 59.61, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 33.65, "downward_expansion": 23.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 93.554931, 94.41929, 93.73948, 93.38646 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 90.991997, "trend_reference": 93.285666, "distance_from_trend": -0.024588, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 49.523551, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.837348, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 16.747743, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047284, "excess_performance": -0.156923, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024588, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248549, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.837348, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.174305, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.167477, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.350916, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047284, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.001749, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11410, "relative_activity": 9.879643, "balance": 0.001749, "dry_up": 4.939605, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017133, "annualized_volatility": 0.112558, "from_high_reference": -0.080006, "from_low_reference": 1.326923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 93.285666, "fair_value_reference": 49.523551, "structural_low": 88.036003, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.009916, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.034413, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.002783, "worst_return": -0.017048, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.021597, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.053439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.021597, "worst_return": 0.021597, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.065013, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051689, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.065013, "worst_return": -0.065013, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.243766, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.276736, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243766, "worst_return": 0.243766, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-09-10", "end": "2021-10-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049042, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2021-10-22", "end": "2021-11-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.094132, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2021-12-03", "end": "2022-02-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.088444, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-02-11", "end": "2022-03-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099264, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-03-11", "end": "2022-03-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.083145, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2022-03-25", "end": "2022-04-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022843, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-04-15", "end": "2022-05-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012851, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2022-06-03", "end": "2022-06-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070486, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-06-17", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.570982, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.736847, "energy": 42.182843, "activity_lines": [ 94.950265, 95.173546, 93.916795, 93.422851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 90.991997, "volume": 11410, "typical_volume": 1154.9, "trend": 93.285666, "fair_value": 49.523551, "relative_strength": 16.747743, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.264446, "energy": 9.06882, "activity_lines": [ 93.554931, 94.41929, 93.73948, 93.38646 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }