{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "418335fc-35ac-4006-b3ee-90fa17e4e530",
    "symbol": "SMLF",
    "name": "ISHARES TRUST US SMALL CAP EQUITY FACTOR ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 73.88,
    "architecture_energy": 48.181,
    "architecture_maturity": 41.124,
    "architecture_confidence": 55.662,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.23,
        "rotation_up": 43.57,
        "upward_expansion": 71.16,
        "deceleration": 72.57,
        "rotation_down": 28.03,
        "downward_expansion": 11.49
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        87.502667,
        87.346209,
        85.936441,
        83.973839
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 89.87,
    "trend_reference": 81.766424,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.099106,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 66.715864,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.347056,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 2.384991,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.136019,
    "excess_performance": 0.010394,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.099106,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.052603,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.347056,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.034954,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.02385,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.010033,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.136019,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.50985,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 663267,
      "relative_activity": 0.82621,
      "balance": 1.50985,
      "dry_up": 0.908256,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.030647,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.155227,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003106,
      "from_low_reference": 0.321758
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 81.766424,
      "fair_value_reference": 66.715864,
      "structural_low": 72.543458,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.024587,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011779,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.115364,
        "worst_return": -0.075005,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.082387,
        "positive_rate": 0.6,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.6,
        "median_excess_return": -0.03233,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.198403,
        "worst_return": -0.176178,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.102124,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.039056,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.147533,
        "worst_return": 0.024127,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.143279,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.068455,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.268794,
        "worst_return": 0.017763,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.022817,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-06-28",
        "end": "2024-07-19",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.037576,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-07-26",
        "end": "2024-12-27",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.053855,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-01-03",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.022605,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-02-21",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.044375,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-28",
        "end": "2025-03-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.039922,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-14",
        "end": "2025-04-04",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.09862,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-11",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.130775,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.019354,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-04",
        "end": "2025-08-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.0222,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-08",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.07334,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.115364,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.047303,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-08-07",
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        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "relative_strength": 1.590169,
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "typical_volume": 968849.65,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "relative_strength": 2.587398,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 886791.15,
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        "fair_value": 66.066777,
        "relative_strength": 2.823083,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 62.694184,
        "energy": 54.997268,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 85.92,
        "volume": 611990,
        "typical_volume": 838194.15,
        "trend": 81.019804,
        "fair_value": 66.27014,
        "relative_strength": 2.664008,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 58.688539,
        "energy": 46.39622,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 86.23,
        "volume": 726585,
        "typical_volume": 822287.0,
        "trend": 81.377226,
        "fair_value": 66.479387,
        "relative_strength": 1.819317,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 45.005033,
        "energy": 35.365058,
        "activity_lines": [
          86.497333,
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          85.295484,
          83.425918
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 89.87,
        "volume": 663267,
        "typical_volume": 802782.35,
        "trend": 81.766424,
        "fair_value": 66.715864,
        "relative_strength": 2.384991,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 73.880349,
        "energy": 48.181492,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}