{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41835be7-1e1c-40cc-8f95-9dda48ade313", "symbol": "UBUT", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI USA Quality Screened UCITS ETF USD dis", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-11", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 88.01, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 61.114, "architecture_energy": 55.744, "architecture_maturity": 97.503, "architecture_confidence": 65.014, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.54, "rotation_up": 46.5, "upward_expansion": 81.61, "deceleration": 71.5, "rotation_down": 29.51, "downward_expansion": 10.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 61.093999, 61.059446, 60.418404, 59.076086 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 60.279999, "trend_reference": 57.067718, "distance_from_trend": 0.056289, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 48.563851, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.241252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.378722, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.162136, "excess_performance": 0.071666, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056289, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.048223, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.241252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016038, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.053787, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054691, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.162136, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.333287, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 35632, "relative_activity": 1.852124, "balance": 0.333287, "dry_up": 1.769321, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017214, "annualized_volatility": 0.124003, "from_high_reference": -0.03351, "from_low_reference": 0.242205 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.067718, "fair_value_reference": 48.563851, "structural_low": 49.32, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.015008, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.00666, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.092386, "worst_return": -0.106878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.025369, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.01647, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.130369, "worst_return": -0.200503, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.088331, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.054028, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.200314, "worst_return": -0.167906, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.146343, "energy": 72.478408, "activity_lines": [ 61.577109, 61.09532, 60.101657, 58.550886 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 61.169998, "volume": 19952, "typical_volume": 17739.45, "trend": 56.796051, "fair_value": 48.41521, "relative_strength": 5.235768, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.479702, "energy": 64.872697, "activity_lines": [ 61.537139, 61.176383, 60.319745, 58.851315 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 60.279999, "volume": 35632, "typical_volume": 19238.45, "trend": 57.067718, "fair_value": 48.563851, "relative_strength": 5.378722, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.114035, "energy": 55.743847, "activity_lines": [ 61.093999, 61.059446, 60.418404, 59.076086 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }