{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4185db68-abb0-425b-a127-d19ebc1a19ec", "symbol": "GGD", "name": "GoGold Resources Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.706, "architecture_energy": 15.539, "architecture_maturity": 31.414, "architecture_confidence": 82.659, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.28, "rotation_up": 30.99, "upward_expansion": 33.05, "deceleration": 69.34, "rotation_down": 41.58, "downward_expansion": 23.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.22, 3.217091, 3.168095, 3.116366 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.73, "trend_reference": 3.123, "distance_from_trend": 0.194364, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.953013, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.90987, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 14.432681, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.187898, "excess_performance": 0.067477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.194364, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057569, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.90987, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.252881, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.144327, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.120924, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.187898, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.04366, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9122000, "relative_activity": 1.634553, "balance": 1.04366, "dry_up": 1.325087, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.109713, "annualized_volatility": 0.727722, "from_high_reference": -0.09466, "from_low_reference": 0.759434 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.123, "fair_value_reference": 1.953013, "structural_low": 2.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.097744, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": -0.085204, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.163043, "worst_return": -0.172932, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.007649, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.020153, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.135338, "worst_return": -0.302721, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.059981, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064859, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.195312, "worst_return": -0.323432, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.22838, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.274115, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.172932, "worst_return": -0.283828, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039062, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015504, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.130769, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.165517, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.285714, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.362832, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.673203, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177215, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.088136, "active": 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"balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.464024, "energy": 5.13041, "activity_lines": [ 3.102667, 3.174, 3.106, 3.088667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.9, "volume": 5455500, "typical_volume": 5632000.0, "trend": 3.100333, "fair_value": 1.938269, "relative_strength": -7.673762, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.459726, "energy": 17.359739, "activity_lines": [ 3.014, 3.117273, 3.097381, 3.075742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.73, "volume": 9122000, "typical_volume": 5580730.0, "trend": 3.123, "fair_value": 1.953013, "relative_strength": 14.432681, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.706001, "energy": 15.538775, "activity_lines": [ 3.22, 3.217091, 3.168095, 3.116366 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }