{ "ticker": { "uuid": "418659e8-c739-4b5d-8ed5-ad5a9427d407", "symbol": "NCYF", "name": "CQS New City High Yield Fund Limited", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 95.705, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.946, "architecture_energy": 14.057, "architecture_maturity": 23.769, "architecture_confidence": 77.468, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.97, "rotation_up": 30.09, "upward_expansion": 55.15, "deceleration": 82.35, "rotation_down": 23.24, "downward_expansion": 16.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.505596, 0.506344, 0.506031, 0.503824 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.504, "trend_reference": 0.501848, "distance_from_trend": 0.004288, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.45576, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.105845, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.430195, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.003906, "excess_performance": -0.047329, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.004288, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010165, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.105845, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029632, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064302, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.036004, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.003906, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.159771, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29216488, "relative_activity": 3.381214, "balance": 1.159771, "dry_up": 1.763111, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018371, "annualized_volatility": 0.112607, "from_high_reference": -0.028902, "from_low_reference": 0.082105 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.501848, "fair_value_reference": 0.45576, "structural_low": 0.465759, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.012535, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.042491, "worst_return": -0.036823, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.031699, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.008851, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.040441, "worst_return": -0.025077, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.028542, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017572, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.033674, "worst_return": -0.073313, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-09-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-29", "end": "2023-10-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00615, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-10-27", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.176482, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.05238, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.02372, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.990765, "energy": 19.283841, "activity_lines": [ 0.507052, 0.507721, 0.505649, 0.503488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.504, "volume": 18514134, "typical_volume": 8009208.8, "trend": 0.501525, "fair_value": 0.454832, "relative_strength": -6.387976, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.653329, "energy": 17.872773, "activity_lines": [ 0.506294, 0.507023, 0.505863, 0.503664 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.504, "volume": 29216488, "typical_volume": 8640827.8, "trend": 0.501848, "fair_value": 0.45576, "relative_strength": -6.430195, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.946275, "energy": 14.057426, "activity_lines": [ 0.505596, 0.506344, 0.506031, 0.503824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }