{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4189d83f-b61f-415d-aa1d-2056129c0d48", "symbol": "3693", "name": "AIC Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 84.652, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -0.298, "architecture_energy": 3.413, "architecture_maturity": 20.633, "architecture_confidence": 76.415, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 59.31, "rotation_up": 34.5, "upward_expansion": 27.24, "deceleration": 44.91, "rotation_down": 26.78, "downward_expansion": 27.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 505.933333, 499.1, 522.619048, 523.287097 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 536.0, "trend_reference": 503.016667, "distance_from_trend": 0.065571, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 379.717553, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.411576, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.051215, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.360406, "excess_performance": -0.080966, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.065571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148047, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.411576, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106974, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020512, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082651, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.360406, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.846653, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5504296, "relative_activity": 0.808083, "balance": 0.846653, "dry_up": 0.683035, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156286, "annualized_volatility": 0.761821, "from_high_reference": -0.290066, "from_low_reference": 1.285714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 503.016667, "fair_value_reference": 379.717553, "structural_low": 352.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.024145, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.032944, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.351987, "worst_return": -0.170213, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.013211, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.031933, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.924419, "worst_return": -0.262755, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.257763, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.071754, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.405952, "worst_return": -0.23284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 442.0, "volume": 2891793, "typical_volume": 8964042.6, "trend": 474.866667, "fair_value": 375.604169, "relative_strength": -14.156033, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.013326, "energy": 26.015456, "activity_lines": [ 484.0, 504.463636, 536.769048, 518.368817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 509.0, "volume": 4254537, "typical_volume": 8559369.6, "trend": 482.933333, "fair_value": 376.854209, "relative_strength": -3.109165, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.174264, "energy": 16.065427, "activity_lines": [ 490.5, 501.854545, 533.885714, 520.570968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 447.0, "volume": 3481476, "typical_volume": 8257171.35, "trend": 488.35, "fair_value": 377.659313, "relative_strength": -13.417704, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.758592, "energy": 25.970136, "activity_lines": [ 475.733333, 488.645455, 524.714286, 518.252688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 527.0, "volume": 5369794, "typical_volume": 6815480.25, "trend": 496.616667, "fair_value": 378.671462, "relative_strength": -0.292224, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.632282, "energy": 13.245889, "activity_lines": [ 490.0, 492.563636, 523.219048, 520.746237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 536.0, "volume": 5504296, "typical_volume": 6811551.0, "trend": 503.016667, "fair_value": 379.717553, "relative_strength": -2.051215, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -0.297504, "energy": 3.413173, "activity_lines": [ 505.933333, 499.1, 522.619048, 523.287097 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }