{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4192c4e4-a979-46cf-a12b-fdad8862bfca", "symbol": "ABI", "name": "AB Igrene (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.478, "architecture_energy": 25.445, "architecture_maturity": 72.167, "architecture_confidence": 51.863, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.55, "rotation_up": 38.3, "upward_expansion": 21.38, "deceleration": 44.05, "rotation_down": 20.97, "downward_expansion": 55.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.549133, 0.496545, 0.505949, 0.577328 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 0.572, "trend_reference": 0.628288, "distance_from_trend": -0.089589, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.422746, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.353058, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.111737, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.505263, "excess_performance": 0.443769, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.089589, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109877, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.353058, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091332, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.091117, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153607, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.505263, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.798328, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2335774, "relative_activity": 1.233786, "balance": 1.798328, "dry_up": 1.506033, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.190156, "annualized_volatility": 2.092793, "from_high_reference": -0.662537, "from_low_reference": 1.845771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.628288, "fair_value_reference": 0.422746, "structural_low": 0.33, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.030769, "positive_rate": 0.592593, "directional_follow_through": 0.407407, "median_excess_return": 0.03722, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 4.494801, "worst_return": -0.373016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.006757, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.07892, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 1.864586, "worst_return": -0.34968, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.119988, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018012, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 2.692282, "worst_return": -0.318034, "sufficient": true }, 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"trend": 0.605455, "fair_value": 0.419022, "relative_strength": -4.265311, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.665938, "energy": 39.545398, "activity_lines": [ 0.451533, 0.441127, 0.501088, 0.578073 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.64, "volume": 5758913, "typical_volume": 2095972.25, "trend": 0.618088, "fair_value": 0.421092, "relative_strength": 25.784717, "stage": 2, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.727742, "energy": 21.513214, "activity_lines": [ 0.519667, 0.475618, 0.506147, 0.580302 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.572, "volume": 2335774, "typical_volume": 1893175.2, "trend": 0.628288, "fair_value": 0.422746, "relative_strength": 9.111737, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.477886, "energy": 25.445045, "activity_lines": [ 0.549133, 0.496545, 0.505949, 0.577328 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }