{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41932a4d-0894-4e41-bb4b-ded1400fa138", "symbol": "XGD", "name": "iShares S&P/TSX Global Gold Index ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 95.789, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.05, "architecture_energy": 26.357, "architecture_maturity": 40.576, "architecture_confidence": 58.636, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.43, "rotation_up": 26.64, "upward_expansion": 17.67, "deceleration": 62.47, "rotation_down": 37.58, "downward_expansion": 65.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 49.107333, 48.701102, 50.486369, 52.362165 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 55.369999, "trend_reference": 54.901231, "distance_from_trend": 0.008538, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 31.661896, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.74879, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -3.101892, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.040381, "excess_performance": -0.160803, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.008538, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005777, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.74879, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.223977, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.031019, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.144341, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040381, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.644525, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2992500, "relative_activity": 1.758613, "balance": 0.644525, "dry_up": 1.286946, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074599, "annualized_volatility": 0.571455, "from_high_reference": -0.207868, "from_low_reference": 0.609478 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 54.901231, "fair_value_reference": 31.661896, "structural_low": 43.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.000583, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.02819, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.161246, "worst_return": -0.077998, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.088661, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.048127, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.298223, "worst_return": 0.010753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.318576, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.239244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.360814, "worst_return": -0.040212, "sufficient": false }, { 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"close": 47.279999, "volume": 2096600, "typical_volume": 1865620.0, "trend": 55.593857, "fair_value": 30.869488, "relative_strength": -14.063608, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.997345, "energy": 68.910839, "activity_lines": [ 48.854832, 50.002912, 52.46412, 54.214755 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 44.060001, "volume": 1964100, "typical_volume": 1882370.0, "trend": 55.317818, "fair_value": 31.038786, "relative_strength": -19.946761, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.730511, "energy": 76.5443, "activity_lines": [ 47.141977, 48.683585, 51.453087, 53.470635 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 46.799999, "volume": 1600000, "typical_volume": 1811340.0, "trend": 55.098564, "fair_value": 31.228029, "relative_strength": -15.370058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.535537, "energy": 66.743311, "activity_lines": [ 46.720666, 48.099984, 50.822006, 52.921098 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 45.990002, "volume": 2203000, "typical_volume": 1759135.0, "trend": 54.924898, "fair_value": 31.415274, "relative_strength": -16.62494, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.903044, "energy": 67.330756, "activity_lines": [ 46.27, 47.489549, 50.180831, 52.333449 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.369999, "volume": 2992500, "typical_volume": 1701625.0, "trend": 54.901231, "fair_value": 31.661896, "relative_strength": -3.101892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.050192, "energy": 26.356847, "activity_lines": [ 49.107333, 48.701102, 50.486369, 52.362165 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }