{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41982e16-7f34-4f39-b983-ba59f6cea207", "symbol": "LEM", "name": "Amundi MSCI Emerging Markets Swap II UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.476, "architecture_energy": 23.955, "architecture_maturity": 65.324, "architecture_confidence": 91.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.33, "rotation_up": 18.28, "upward_expansion": 52.34, "deceleration": 93.98, "rotation_down": 35.41, "downward_expansion": 18.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.319067, 18.605291, 18.545686, 18.114966 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.504, "trend_reference": 17.555067, "distance_from_trend": 0.054055, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.537644, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.366855, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.021639, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.128361, "excess_performance": 0.07505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.054055, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07599, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.366855, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079216, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.060216, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.172527, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.128361, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.487064, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 83324, "relative_activity": 0.55246, "balance": 1.487064, "dry_up": 1.106125, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043296, "annualized_volatility": 0.229568, "from_high_reference": -0.071737, "from_low_reference": 0.367931 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.555067, "fair_value_reference": 13.537644, "structural_low": 15.343, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015098, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.011743, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.129146, "worst_return": -0.017974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057162, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.060297, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233736, "worst_return": -0.006561, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.003235, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.003753, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.33643, "worst_return": -0.003871, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039058, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.019764, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067493, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.094831, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-02", 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.505476, "energy": 58.436639, "activity_lines": [ 19.227133, 19.084145, 18.413048, 17.883265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.972, "volume": 125265, "typical_volume": 163000.0, "trend": 17.265567, "fair_value": 13.401042, "relative_strength": 8.88515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.868542, "energy": 34.976395, "activity_lines": [ 18.796533, 18.909709, 18.433405, 17.935548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.266001, "volume": 319786, "typical_volume": 160339.6, "trend": 17.376867, "fair_value": 13.444478, "relative_strength": 9.727582, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.767442, "energy": 22.918902, "activity_lines": [ 18.532934, 18.801055, 18.478014, 18.000093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.120001, "volume": 138944, "typical_volume": 159010.5, "trend": 17.4666, "fair_value": 13.488894, "relative_strength": 6.713898, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.289873, "energy": 23.768696, "activity_lines": [ 18.326267, 18.664855, 18.498276, 18.048037 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.504, "volume": 83324, "typical_volume": 150823.6, "trend": 17.555067, "fair_value": 13.537644, "relative_strength": 6.021639, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.475983, "energy": 23.955, "activity_lines": [ 18.319067, 18.605291, 18.545686, 18.114966 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }