{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4198c80f-40f4-44a7-98d4-3874eba12291", "symbol": "WAT", "name": "Waterco Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 64.417, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.294, "architecture_energy": 50.596, "architecture_maturity": 46.026, "architecture_confidence": 51.829, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.87, "rotation_up": 73.57, "upward_expansion": 69.67, "deceleration": 56.98, "rotation_down": 14.06, "downward_expansion": 17.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.331333, 5.241091, 5.253885, 5.250905 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.46, "trend_reference": 5.239307, "distance_from_trend": 0.042123, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.412516, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008773, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.086119, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.031935, "excess_performance": -0.03177, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042123, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018988, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.008773, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021257, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.020861, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019675, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031935, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.024945, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16957, "relative_activity": 3.084493, "balance": 1.024945, "dry_up": 3.646612, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019301, "annualized_volatility": 0.269637, "from_high_reference": -0.174519, "from_low_reference": 0.164457 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.239307, "fair_value_reference": 5.412516, "structural_low": 4.836949, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.058823, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.049764, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.110938, "worst_return": 0.034615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.08, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.076296, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.125489, "worst_return": 0.067721, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.186357, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.274105, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.344578, "worst_return": -0.135494, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.186357, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.247252, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.381367, "worst_return": -0.124533, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.005556, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.479607, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.098338, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043932, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward 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5.375019, "relative_strength": -7.543723, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.31663, "energy": 50.766983, "activity_lines": [ 5.098667, 5.150545, 5.234516, 5.224568 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.0, "volume": 3746, "typical_volume": 1741.85, "trend": 5.192207, "fair_value": 5.381965, "relative_strength": -7.055551, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.177184, "energy": 56.988217, "activity_lines": [ 5.059333, 5.110545, 5.212245, 5.212093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.38, "volume": 6112, "typical_volume": 2042.3, "trend": 5.204386, "fair_value": 5.391583, "relative_strength": 0.797041, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 14.96873, "energy": 19.572852, "activity_lines": [ 5.155333, 5.147818, 5.225858, 5.224209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.38, "volume": 53374, "typical_volume": 4668.2, "trend": 5.221829, "fair_value": 5.40126, "relative_strength": -0.949756, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.471345, "energy": 20.271742, "activity_lines": [ 5.236, 5.186545, 5.237355, 5.235539 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.46, "volume": 16957, "typical_volume": 5497.5, "trend": 5.239307, "fair_value": 5.412516, "relative_strength": -2.086119, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.293885, "energy": 50.595527, "activity_lines": [ 5.331333, 5.241091, 5.253885, 5.250905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }