{ "ticker": { "uuid": "419a0eb0-c0a4-4b98-9ee6-fafedff9d9a9", "symbol": "GE", "name": "Gefran S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.231, "architecture_energy": 40.328, "architecture_maturity": 24.461, "architecture_confidence": 75.385, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.74, "rotation_up": 54.12, "upward_expansion": 78.92, "deceleration": 52.49, "rotation_down": 18.11, "downward_expansion": 5.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.12, 11.019091, 10.944769, 10.796377 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.45, "trend_reference": 10.594336, "distance_from_trend": 0.080766, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.927738, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28252, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.513824, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137499, "excess_performance": -0.033392, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.080766, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016069, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28252, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064762, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.085138, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.066025, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137499, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.996706, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 58451, "relative_activity": 1.222227, "balance": 0.996706, "dry_up": 0.708446, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054417, "annualized_volatility": 0.279734, "from_high_reference": -0.09948, "from_low_reference": 0.22545 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.594336, "fair_value_reference": 8.927738, "structural_low": 9.343503, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.01626, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": 0.006347, "regime_survival": 0.307692, "best_return": 0.134904, "worst_return": -0.100313, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.033453, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.055844, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.11349, "worst_return": -0.072016, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.069321, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.009604, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.231263, "worst_return": -0.057613, "sufficient": 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[ 10.723333, 10.828564, 10.69223, 10.564619 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 11.15, "volume": 7112, "typical_volume": 51752.0, "trend": 10.447863, "fair_value": 8.822922, "relative_strength": -10.560481, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.762342, "energy": 20.076687, "activity_lines": [ 10.833333, 10.869455, 10.748828, 10.612043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.0, "volume": 55762, "typical_volume": 52855.05, "trend": 10.470971, "fair_value": 8.843179, "relative_strength": -11.16746, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.688647, "energy": 24.19337, "activity_lines": [ 10.906667, 10.88, 10.786666, 10.647664 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 11.05, "volume": 24595, "typical_volume": 51055.35, "trend": 10.498957, "fair_value": 8.863532, "relative_strength": -9.267861, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.33166, "energy": 26.987799, "activity_lines": [ 10.976667, 10.904545, 10.825964, 10.685021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 10.95, "volume": 26616, "typical_volume": 50288.95, "trend": 10.52682, "fair_value": 8.883804, "relative_strength": -9.755524, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.057394, "energy": 32.736669, "activity_lines": [ 10.99, 10.922727, 10.854264, 10.714121 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 25859, "typical_volume": 47892.0, "trend": 10.548201, "fair_value": 8.904261, "relative_strength": -10.53419, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.889379, "energy": 25.670536, "activity_lines": [ 10.973333, 10.921818, 10.875656, 10.738197 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.45, "volume": 58451, "typical_volume": 47823.35, "trend": 10.594336, "fair_value": 8.927738, "relative_strength": -8.513824, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.230635, "energy": 40.327996, "activity_lines": [ 11.12, 11.019091, 10.944769, 10.796377 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }