{ "ticker": { "uuid": "419c44fa-ee6d-4cea-a358-5526657054e5", "symbol": "APG", "name": "Axon Partners Group, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 70.5, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.289, "architecture_energy": 34.748, "architecture_maturity": 61.525, "architecture_confidence": 74.161, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.94, "rotation_up": 30.81, "upward_expansion": 63.52, "deceleration": 91.02, "rotation_down": 27.68, "downward_expansion": 18.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.0, 17.076363, 16.833809, 16.491183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 17.0, "trend_reference": 16.09, "distance_from_trend": 0.056557, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.843206, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.073015, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.021193, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.125828, "excess_performance": 0.001397, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.056557, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043901, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.073015, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001179, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.070212, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06836, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.125828, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.688712, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1186, "relative_activity": 1.349184, "balance": 0.688712, "dry_up": 0.51732, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024434, "annualized_volatility": 0.18891, "from_high_reference": -0.039548, "from_low_reference": 0.25 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.09, "fair_value_reference": 15.843206, "structural_low": 14.8, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.11875, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.168188, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.006211, "worst_return": -0.185393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.117977, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.198439, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.03125, "worst_return": -0.211429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.0125, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.162222, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.068528, "worst_return": -0.117977, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.057535, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.386712, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.057535, "worst_return": -0.057535, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05914, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.08, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006211, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.054794, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.290453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032258, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", 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"volume": 1423, "typical_volume": 890.3, "trend": 15.816667, "fair_value": 15.827203, "relative_strength": -5.425312, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.053925, "energy": 65.643904, "activity_lines": [ 17.22, 17.065454, 16.533333, 16.212258 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.0, "volume": 58, "typical_volume": 877.65, "trend": 15.886667, "fair_value": 15.831204, "relative_strength": -4.012536, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.288332, "energy": 60.752412, "activity_lines": [ 17.16, 17.074545, 16.616667, 16.288602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.0, "volume": 171, "typical_volume": 871.25, "trend": 15.953333, "fair_value": 15.835205, "relative_strength": -5.215348, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.299894, "energy": 51.5355, "activity_lines": [ 17.086667, 17.081818, 16.695714, 16.36043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.0, "volume": 404, "typical_volume": 856.95, "trend": 16.02, "fair_value": 15.839206, "relative_strength": -5.634095, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.257017, "energy": 35.924205, "activity_lines": [ 17.033333, 17.087273, 16.769047, 16.427957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.0, "volume": 1186, "typical_volume": 879.05, "trend": 16.09, "fair_value": 15.843206, "relative_strength": -7.021193, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.28878, "energy": 34.748039, "activity_lines": [ 17.0, 17.076363, 16.833809, 16.491183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }