{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41a3033e-9852-4411-aac4-8b795eeacb43", "symbol": "AUSSE", "name": "BNP PARIBAS Easy ICAV - BNP Paribas Easy ESG Enhanced US UCITS ETF UCITS ETF EUR CAPITALISATION", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.642, "architecture_energy": 67.401, "architecture_maturity": 86.165, "architecture_confidence": 66.182, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.23, "rotation_up": 53.21, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.44, "rotation_down": 29.41, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.0528, 14.005309, 13.752171, 13.412297 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 14.314, "trend_reference": 13.016467, "distance_from_trend": 0.099684, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.058154, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.187081, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.221538, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.152496, "excess_performance": -0.018396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.099684, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044744, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.187081, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065498, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.022215, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002567, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152496, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.502177, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15600, "relative_activity": 0.806583, "balance": 2.502177, "dry_up": 1.951414, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018755, "annualized_volatility": 0.126757, "from_high_reference": -0.002091, "from_low_reference": 0.257379 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.016467, "fair_value_reference": 12.058154, "structural_low": 11.822, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.017297, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.007264, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.033161, "worst_return": 0.001433, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059511, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-11-15", "close": 11.818, "volume": 85, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-22", "close": 11.818, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-11-29", 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13.422048, 13.118581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.978, "volume": 26718, "typical_volume": 13726.35, "trend": 12.854067, "fair_value": 11.990932, "relative_strength": -1.211965, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.123766, "energy": 66.033064, "activity_lines": [ 14.0076, 13.917818, 13.513362, 13.194473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.988, "volume": 87410, "typical_volume": 17498.85, "trend": 12.9068, "fair_value": 12.013371, "relative_strength": -1.015212, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.653141, "energy": 65.00912, "activity_lines": [ 14.009467, 13.946073, 13.596629, 13.26763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.788, "volume": 21240, "typical_volume": 18560.85, "trend": 12.952867, "fair_value": 12.033089, "relative_strength": -3.07537, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.805027, "energy": 61.167064, "activity_lines": [ 13.942667, 13.9304, 13.652867, 13.324482 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.314, "volume": 15600, "typical_volume": 19340.85, "trend": 13.016467, "fair_value": 12.058154, "relative_strength": -2.221538, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.642466, "energy": 67.401155, "activity_lines": [ 14.0528, 14.005309, 13.752171, 13.412297 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }