{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41aa544d-9b87-4fcf-9191-edb89d878890", "symbol": "MLPAC", "name": "Pacte Novation", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 60.729, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -46.758, "architecture_energy": 42.239, "architecture_maturity": 9.345, "architecture_confidence": 66.805, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.17, "rotation_up": 19.87, "upward_expansion": 27.14, "deceleration": 57.97, "rotation_down": 62.09, "downward_expansion": 33.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.816667, 8.904545, 8.972381, 8.963656 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.35, "trend_reference": 8.86, "distance_from_trend": -0.057562, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.745513, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045225, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.446326, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.037267, "excess_performance": -0.016044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.057562, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.028638, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045225, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081202, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.094463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130452, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037267, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.005025, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2, "relative_activity": 0.124224, "balance": 0.005025, "dry_up": 0.108696, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017043, "annualized_volatility": 0.174088, "from_high_reference": -0.121053, "from_low_reference": 0.037267 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.86, "fair_value_reference": 8.745513, "structural_low": 8.05, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": 0.017537, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.647887, "worst_return": -0.077348, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.06301, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.535211, "worst_return": -0.192661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.210061, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.062693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.239437, "worst_return": -0.073864, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.126761, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.051821, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.1375, "worst_return": 0.034091, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010204, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092784, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.102273, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021053, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005525, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.005556, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.5, "trend": 9.303333, "fair_value": 8.677564, "relative_strength": -1.970695, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.060379, "energy": 59.085588, "activity_lines": [ 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9.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 54.75, "trend": 8.698333, "fair_value": 8.79359, "relative_strength": -0.13273, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.613975, "energy": 29.681545, "activity_lines": [ 9.006667, 9.038182, 9.033571, 8.896667 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 9.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.95, "trend": 8.726667, "fair_value": 8.787179, "relative_strength": 0.591658, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.15838, "energy": 24.629303, "activity_lines": [ 9.0, 9.027273, 9.039762, 8.916129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 9.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.2, "trend": 8.755, "fair_value": 8.780769, "relative_strength": -0.50177, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.245381, "energy": 23.83068, "activity_lines": [ 9.0, 9.018182, 9.041429, 8.933763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 50.2, "trend": 8.783333, "fair_value": 8.774359, "relative_strength": 1.80993, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.061692, "energy": 21.450948, "activity_lines": [ 9.0, 9.010909, 9.039762, 8.94957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34.7, "trend": 8.806667, "fair_value": 8.767949, "relative_strength": 1.77815, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.257504, "energy": 18.405798, "activity_lines": [ 9.0, 9.005455, 9.034762, 8.963548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.1, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 15.8, "trend": 8.833333, "fair_value": 8.762179, "relative_strength": 2.446491, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.67247, "energy": 32.410371, "activity_lines": [ 9.033333, 9.02, 9.039524, 8.982473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.05, "volume": 4, "typical_volume": 16.0, "trend": 8.858333, "fair_value": 8.75609, "relative_strength": 0.305206, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.448713, "energy": 27.96609, "activity_lines": [ 9.043333, 9.025455, 9.039286, 8.996452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.35, "volume": 2, "typical_volume": 16.1, "trend": 8.86, "fair_value": 8.745513, "relative_strength": -9.446326, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.758188, "energy": 42.238946, "activity_lines": [ 8.816667, 8.904545, 8.972381, 8.963656 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }