{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41b1ab17-6e82-4bfe-baf5-398dc1010f41", "symbol": "TINF", "name": "TD Active Global Infrastructure Equity ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.414, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.226, "architecture_energy": 15.512, "architecture_maturity": 55.371, "architecture_confidence": 72.258, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.45, "rotation_up": 19.01, "upward_expansion": 54.5, "deceleration": 91.06, "rotation_down": 33.91, "downward_expansion": 20.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.195334, 26.431554, 26.232486, 26.065824 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 25.68, "trend_reference": 25.7461, "distance_from_trend": -0.002567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.869357, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.230512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.711843, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.034634, "excess_performance": -0.085787, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.002567, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039429, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.230512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037713, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.077118, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024417, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.034634, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419758, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 101900, "relative_activity": 0.568845, "balance": 0.419758, "dry_up": 0.790047, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024563, "annualized_volatility": 0.132291, "from_high_reference": -0.056923, "from_low_reference": 0.136202 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.7461, "fair_value_reference": 20.869357, "structural_low": 24.68626, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.024617, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.006287, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.051282, "worst_return": -0.056593, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.037861, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.042129, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.133411, "worst_return": -0.019816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.042098, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.008031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159062, "worst_return": -0.069497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022952, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051375, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.06188, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.041217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026773, 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}, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.73, "volume": 140200, "typical_volume": 185970.0, "trend": 25.595961, "fair_value": 20.741837, "relative_strength": -1.709844, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.170031, "energy": 47.321466, "activity_lines": [ 26.731334, 26.599003, 26.254042, 26.027821 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.190001, "volume": 153000, "typical_volume": 186790.0, "trend": 25.684994, "fair_value": 20.807998, "relative_strength": -3.077395, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.429753, "energy": 26.980666, "activity_lines": [ 26.521334, 26.564758, 26.269285, 26.066146 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.68, "volume": 101900, "typical_volume": 179135.0, "trend": 25.7461, "fair_value": 20.869357, "relative_strength": -7.711843, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.225696, "energy": 15.512126, "activity_lines": [ 26.195334, 26.431554, 26.232486, 26.065824 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }