{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41b7555f-5bba-418b-8b3a-e3c8083eb499", "symbol": "9564", "name": "Horizon Food Company Limited", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.413, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.682, "architecture_energy": 32.972, "architecture_maturity": 32.156, "architecture_confidence": 83.516, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.97, "rotation_up": 26.28, "upward_expansion": 8.66, "deceleration": 50.6, "rotation_down": 40.28, "downward_expansion": 70.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.573333, 34.58, 34.934, 35.547011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 34.299999, "trend_reference": 35.994667, "distance_from_trend": -0.047081, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 42.432436, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.191656, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -1.538459, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.057174, "excess_performance": -0.025345, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.047081, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012979, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.191656, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010295, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.015385, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029796, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.057174, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.008835, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 120, "relative_activity": 0.005102, "balance": 0.008835, "dry_up": 0.002455, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037183, "annualized_volatility": 0.331926, "from_high_reference": -0.171498, "from_low_reference": 0.106452 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35.994667, "fair_value_reference": 42.432436, "structural_low": 31.620001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.005714, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.030851, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.097561, "worst_return": -0.074667, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.068924, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.047072, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.001495, "worst_return": -0.119737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.090076, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.075036, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.014493, "worst_return": -0.165659, "sufficient": false }, { 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.01791, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.050132, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.099094, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.095607, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": 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"close": 34.5, "volume": 101, "typical_volume": 50721.4, "trend": 36.101334, "fair_value": 42.764487, "relative_strength": -0.334991, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.002819, "energy": 20.230998, "activity_lines": [ 34.886667, 34.607273, 35.257619, 35.763312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 34.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 34940.4, "trend": 36.051334, "fair_value": 42.615128, "relative_strength": 1.506992, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.832361, "energy": 21.584745, "activity_lines": [ 34.78, 34.607273, 35.09581, 35.66 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.299999, "volume": 120, "typical_volume": 23521.4, "trend": 35.994667, "fair_value": 42.432436, "relative_strength": -1.538459, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.681829, "energy": 32.971807, "activity_lines": [ 34.573333, 34.58, 34.934, 35.547011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }