{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "41b9938c-bef7-446e-8f9a-5705ee7ee75d",
    "symbol": "EWG",
    "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI GERMANY ETF",
    "exchange": "NYSEARCA",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "SPY",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 56.261,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 71.821,
    "architecture_energy": 61.067,
    "architecture_maturity": 36.912,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.938,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.48,
        "rotation_up": 61.95,
        "upward_expansion": 83.72,
        "deceleration": 48.34,
        "rotation_down": 18.12,
        "downward_expansion": 17.38
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        42.578,
        42.086551,
        41.805947,
        41.520281
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 44.02,
    "trend_reference": 41.473706,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.061395,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 34.67711,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.269425,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.825026,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.031356,
    "excess_performance": -0.094269,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.061395,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.008112,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.269425,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.018226,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.04825,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045007,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.031356,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.25497,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 4099863,
      "relative_activity": 0.546989,
      "balance": 1.25497,
      "dry_up": 0.6617,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.031731,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.21668,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002192,
      "from_low_reference": 0.182223
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 41.473706,
      "fair_value_reference": 34.67711,
      "structural_low": 37.234946,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 10,
        "median_return": 0.000398,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010053,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
        "best_return": 0.093464,
        "worst_return": -0.052657,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.032937,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.019582,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.162324,
        "worst_return": -0.107151,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.103782,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.039297,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
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        "worst_return": -0.075728,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": 0.275466,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.046536,
        "regime_survival": 0.5,
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        "worst_return": 0.213345,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "New",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "active": false
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      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-05",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "energy": 9.981342,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "stage": 3,
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      },
      {
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        "fair_value": 34.285887,
        "relative_strength": -9.248736,
        "stage": 3,
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        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "volume": 2836526,
        "typical_volume": 9232498.8,
        "trend": 41.411155,
        "fair_value": 34.374142,
        "relative_strength": -8.232603,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -1.683632,
        "energy": 2.970294,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 41.12,
        "volume": 5012052,
        "typical_volume": 8662743.35,
        "trend": 41.38786,
        "fair_value": 34.46021,
        "relative_strength": -7.457436,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -3.232846,
        "energy": 3.814483,
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          41.330667,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 42.85,
        "volume": 7890193,
        "typical_volume": 8202136.85,
        "trend": 41.425173,
        "fair_value": 34.564548,
        "relative_strength": -4.376716,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 28.982636,
        "energy": 22.319742,
        "activity_lines": [
          41.833333,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 44.02,
        "volume": 4099863,
        "typical_volume": 7495323.8,
        "trend": 41.473706,
        "fair_value": 34.67711,
        "relative_strength": -4.825026,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Balance after decline",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 71.821213,
        "energy": 61.067448,
        "activity_lines": [
          42.578,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}