{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41bd0f82-4fda-405f-8ca5-75fb5cdf52d6", "symbol": "BEI", "name": "Beiersdorf Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 59.775, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 15.147, "architecture_energy": 35.139, "architecture_maturity": 2.201, "architecture_confidence": 54.194, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.81, "rotation_up": 53.81, "upward_expansion": 42.2, "deceleration": 28.33, "rotation_down": 14.31, "downward_expansion": 45.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 79.874666, 78.037817, 75.477635, 76.76593 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 81.199997, "trend_reference": 80.996126, "distance_from_trend": 0.002517, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 111.758503, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.273433, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.485082, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.203187, "excess_performance": -0.267827, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002517, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.058804, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.273433, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.100905, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.124851, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122091, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.203187, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.996031, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3255302, "relative_activity": 1.850888, "balance": 1.996031, "dry_up": 1.181685, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045434, "annualized_volatility": 0.423953, "from_high_reference": -0.252739, "from_low_reference": 0.199409 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.996126, "fair_value_reference": 111.758503, "structural_low": 67.699997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.039664, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016575, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.02309, "worst_return": -0.185866, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.093026, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.149331, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.045232, "worst_return": -0.292485, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.203187, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.267827, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.069447, "worst_return": -0.262909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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77.150768 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 77.540001, "volume": 1623927, "typical_volume": 1808602.8, "trend": 81.77497, "fair_value": 112.218152, "relative_strength": -13.513022, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.054287, "energy": 28.242752, "activity_lines": [ 77.821334, 75.679636, 74.117864, 76.84776 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 80.72, "volume": 2075822, "typical_volume": 1796644.05, "trend": 81.413391, "fair_value": 111.991769, "relative_strength": -11.155847, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 17.004057, "energy": 35.480429, "activity_lines": [ 78.941334, 76.889454, 74.782842, 76.779697 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 81.199997, "volume": 3255302, "typical_volume": 1758778.05, "trend": 80.996126, "fair_value": 111.758503, "relative_strength": -12.485082, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.146887, "energy": 35.139196, "activity_lines": [ 79.874666, 78.037817, 75.477635, 76.76593 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }