{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "41beb3ee-953b-4824-804d-88ce9aa39dde",
    "symbol": "SOI",
    "name": "Soitec SA",
    "exchange": "PAR",
    "country": "FR",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^FCHI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 10.684,
    "architecture_energy": 11.422,
    "architecture_maturity": 58.331,
    "architecture_confidence": 75.421,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 51.62,
        "rotation_up": 22.0,
        "upward_expansion": 43.13,
        "deceleration": 82.69,
        "rotation_down": 34.32,
        "downward_expansion": 34.79
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        109.688666,
        110.900545,
        121.546,
        110.30585
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": -0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 122.5,
    "trend_reference": 90.723334,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.350259,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 89.251795,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.372521,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 73.270868,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 2.842535,
    "excess_performance": 2.789223,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.350259,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.482085,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.372521,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.502101,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.732709,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.950848,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.842535,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.83638,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 1288863,
      "relative_activity": 0.632589,
      "balance": 0.83638,
      "dry_up": 0.961848,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.230185,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.230811,
      "from_high_reference": -0.389027,
      "from_low_reference": 4.415561
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 90.723334,
      "fair_value_reference": 89.251795,
      "structural_low": 31.83,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.03304,
        "positive_rate": 0.25,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.25,
        "median_excess_return": -0.039564,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.079716,
        "worst_return": -0.263566,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.018899,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.089534,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.04584,
        "worst_return": -0.19294,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.216327,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.151505,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.117954,
        "worst_return": -0.302224,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.13049,
        "positive_rate": 0.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.0,
        "median_excess_return": -0.127715,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": -0.039752,
        "worst_return": -0.221228,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-07-28",
        "end": "2023-09-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.113087,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-09-15",
        "end": "2023-10-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.145055,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2023-10-27",
        "end": "2023-12-08",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.165164,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2023-12-15",
        "end": "2024-01-19",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.145602,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-01-26",
        "end": "2024-07-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.129412,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-07-19",
        "end": "2024-09-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.180718,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-09-27",
        "end": "2025-01-10",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.072783,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-01-17",
        "end": "2025-01-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.007607,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-02-07",
        "end": "2025-10-24",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.231083,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-10-31",
        "end": "2025-11-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.084044,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-11-21",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.585837,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.265526,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-06-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 1.126255,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-03",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.044331,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 364215.3,
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      },
      {
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 115.25,
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        "typical_volume": 2184585.5,
        "trend": 84.915334,
        "fair_value": 90.024872,
        "relative_strength": 76.565889,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 103.599998,
        "volume": 2051659,
        "typical_volume": 2130762.85,
        "trend": 87.539667,
        "fair_value": 89.556603,
        "relative_strength": 53.404426,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 4.858542,
        "energy": 16.851606,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 122.5,
        "volume": 1288863,
        "typical_volume": 2037441.85,
        "trend": 90.723334,
        "fair_value": 89.251795,
        "relative_strength": 73.270868,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}