{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41bf05ea-9c74-4409-b454-40d644697c2a", "symbol": "EMBELL", "name": "Embellence Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.328, "architecture_energy": 67.259, "architecture_maturity": 9.314, "architecture_confidence": 84.435, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.72, "rotation_up": 11.79, "upward_expansion": 16.6, "deceleration": 34.39, "rotation_down": 73.89, "downward_expansion": 89.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.853333, 32.610909, 33.322582, 33.445745 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 31.5, "trend_reference": 33.741488, "distance_from_trend": -0.066431, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 29.928493, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.052509, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.628043, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.084742, "excess_performance": -0.146237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.066431, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04114, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.052509, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.142259, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20628, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.08216, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.084742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.517488, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23121, "relative_activity": 0.401309, "balance": 0.517488, "dry_up": 1.435959, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057744, "annualized_volatility": 0.230805, "from_high_reference": -0.219531, "from_low_reference": 0.039604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.741488, "fair_value_reference": 29.928493, "structural_low": 30.299999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.00462, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.010061, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.35625, "worst_return": -0.084158, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037225, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.03099, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.339181, "worst_return": -0.039801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.061405, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.062169, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.452887, "worst_return": -0.113913, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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33.626666, 33.876364, 33.959922, 33.966978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.5, "volume": 267383, "typical_volume": 63161.85, "trend": 34.172535, "fair_value": 29.732866, "relative_strength": -19.054585, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.464913, "energy": 49.25002, "activity_lines": [ 32.88, 33.4, 33.745124, 33.781069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.4, "volume": 18269, "typical_volume": 59356.0, "trend": 33.924987, "fair_value": 29.830359, "relative_strength": -19.905131, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.361594, "energy": 58.640814, "activity_lines": [ 32.266666, 32.96, 33.526018, 33.602196 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.5, "volume": 23121, "typical_volume": 57613.95, "trend": 33.741488, "fair_value": 29.928493, "relative_strength": -20.628043, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.327719, "energy": 67.258829, "activity_lines": [ 31.853333, 32.610909, 33.322582, 33.445745 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }