{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "41c83415-1e5b-4c7a-add9-017925239210",
    "symbol": "IEUS",
    "name": "ISHARES MSCI EUROPE SMALL-CAP ETF",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 57.844,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 74.013,
    "architecture_energy": 63.776,
    "architecture_maturity": 14.584,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.571,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.",
        "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.39,
        "rotation_up": 64.67,
        "upward_expansion": 83.68,
        "deceleration": 48.55,
        "rotation_down": 12.26,
        "downward_expansion": 12.68
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        71.871547,
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        70.848199,
        70.242435
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 73.81,
    "trend_reference": 69.809676,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.057303,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 58.087973,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.270659,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -4.910692,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.039851,
    "excess_performance": -0.147603,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.057303,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.025621,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.270659,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.012681,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.049107,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.043345,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.039851,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.999369,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 8101,
      "relative_activity": 0.167818,
      "balance": 0.999369,
      "dry_up": 0.306081,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.027707,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.195536,
      "from_high_reference": -0.002568,
      "from_low_reference": 0.199206
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 69.809676,
      "fair_value_reference": 58.087973,
      "structural_low": 62.580424,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 11,
        "median_return": -0.002932,
        "positive_rate": 0.454545,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.454545,
        "median_excess_return": -0.010055,
        "regime_survival": 0.454545,
        "best_return": 0.107168,
        "worst_return": -0.06685,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 6,
        "median_return": 0.021413,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.015044,
        "regime_survival": 0.166667,
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        "worst_return": -0.078799,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.100296,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.037237,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.144451,
        "worst_return": -0.165214,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.13086,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.123767,
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        "best_return": 0.218348,
        "worst_return": -0.382981,
        "sufficient": false
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    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2024-10-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.011496,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "New",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-24",
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        "typical_volume": 97166.85,
        "trend": 67.067172,
        "fair_value": 55.91992,
        "relative_strength": -5.845347,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 96988.0,
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        "fair_value": 56.057313,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "energy": 43.505845,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 95465.9,
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        "fair_value": 56.211169,
        "relative_strength": -9.245147,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "trend": 67.630716,
        "fair_value": 56.349668,
        "relative_strength": -11.464434,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 97663.3,
        "trend": 67.807868,
        "fair_value": 56.50789,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 46.157014,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 72.432136,
        "volume": 21885,
        "typical_volume": 96061.95,
        "trend": 68.065792,
        "fair_value": 56.665556,
        "relative_strength": -11.290741,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "energy": 42.574247,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 70.14399,
        "volume": 39426,
        "typical_volume": 94793.6,
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        "fair_value": 56.807628,
        "relative_strength": -9.743144,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 32.543932,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 71.280319,
        "volume": 22955,
        "typical_volume": 90094.05,
        "trend": 68.553207,
        "fair_value": 56.950482,
        "relative_strength": -10.030217,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
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        "direction": 54.974075,
        "energy": 33.592494,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "trend": 68.818445,
        "fair_value": 57.101268,
        "relative_strength": -13.218047,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 24.377492,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "typical_volume": 86876.2,
        "trend": 68.945183,
        "fair_value": 57.234555,
        "relative_strength": -10.802474,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 25.293919,
        "energy": 15.240547,
        "activity_lines": [
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          69.856382,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 70.2699,
        "volume": 22942,
        "typical_volume": 86781.75,
        "trend": 69.11039,
        "fair_value": 57.381574,
        "relative_strength": -9.324701,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 30.120331,
        "energy": 16.411237,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 69.8388,
        "volume": 71851,
        "typical_volume": 88873.45,
        "trend": 69.252829,
        "fair_value": 57.511281,
        "relative_strength": -11.140304,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 26.517522,
        "energy": 16.830215,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.896555,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 70.3795,
        "volume": 18915,
        "typical_volume": 56339.4,
        "trend": 69.397574,
        "fair_value": 57.643754,
        "relative_strength": -6.318997,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 29.055946,
        "energy": 16.505814,
        "activity_lines": [
          69.99264,
          70.275038,
          70.102468,
          69.763673
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 70.195,
        "volume": 22991,
        "typical_volume": 53940.7,
        "trend": 69.499614,
        "fair_value": 57.77586,
        "relative_strength": -4.80002,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 28.644512,
        "energy": 12.532111,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.08728,
          70.220105,
          70.200154,
          69.81512
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 71.9601,
        "volume": 9094,
        "typical_volume": 50364.4,
        "trend": 69.647095,
        "fair_value": 57.924996,
        "relative_strength": -2.768744,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 56.715988,
        "energy": 31.487386,
        "activity_lines": [
          70.777767,
          70.481325,
          70.453354,
          69.973861
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 73.81,
        "volume": 8101,
        "typical_volume": 48272.4,
        "trend": 69.809676,
        "fair_value": 58.087973,
        "relative_strength": -4.910692,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 74.01271,
        "energy": 63.776322,
        "activity_lines": [
          71.871547,
          71.072835,
          70.848199,
          70.242435
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}