{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "41cee128-224f-4c4d-84c0-7b4c9688fdfb",
    "symbol": "SXLU",
    "name": "State Street SPDR S&P U.S. Utilities Select Sector UCITS ETF",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch",
    "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 9.063,
    "architecture_energy": 5.686,
    "architecture_maturity": 37.295,
    "architecture_confidence": 64.089,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 56.07,
        "rotation_up": 29.98,
        "upward_expansion": 64.07,
        "deceleration": 81.31,
        "rotation_down": 28.56,
        "downward_expansion": 16.4
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        49.390001,
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        49.420786,
        49.389914
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      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 47.77,
    "trend_reference": 49.019167,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.025483,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 42.654872,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.119919,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -14.604448,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.046326,
    "excess_performance": -0.124566,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.025483,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.021084,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.119919,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.038963,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.146044,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05244,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.046326,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.643123,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 6905,
      "relative_activity": 0.660895,
      "balance": 0.643123,
      "dry_up": 0.745505,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 3
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.029541,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.197528,
      "from_high_reference": -0.081346,
      "from_low_reference": 0.101834
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 49.019167,
      "fair_value_reference": 42.654872,
      "structural_low": 45.380001,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
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        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 31,
        "median_return": -0.005644,
        "positive_rate": 0.387097,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.387097,
        "median_excess_return": 0.011874,
        "regime_survival": 0.709677,
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        "worst_return": -0.165703,
        "sufficient": true
      },
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        "horizon": "Intermediate",
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        "worst_return": -0.08641,
        "sufficient": true
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        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 6,
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        "horizon": "Full cycle",
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        "regime": "balance",
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "direction": 43.873682,
        "energy": 29.669581,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 50.02,
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        "typical_volume": 19196.3,
        "trend": 48.036333,
        "fair_value": 41.420994,
        "relative_strength": -3.899998,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 26.643862,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 18980.75,
        "trend": 48.015,
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        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "energy": 18.551196,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 47.790001,
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        "typical_volume": 19572.95,
        "trend": 47.986166,
        "fair_value": 41.569808,
        "relative_strength": -9.381021,
        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 15.08725,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 20492.55,
        "trend": 48.008666,
        "fair_value": 41.659551,
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        "stage": 3,
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        "direction": 12.703717,
        "energy": 15.083664,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 47.845001,
        "volume": 21599,
        "typical_volume": 19871.35,
        "trend": 48.007,
        "fair_value": 41.739551,
        "relative_strength": -10.539239,
        "stage": 3,
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 48.380001,
        "volume": 14085,
        "typical_volume": 18408.05,
        "trend": 48.039,
        "fair_value": 41.819006,
        "relative_strength": -9.110085,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 6.875856,
        "energy": 15.546783,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 48.105,
        "volume": 4460,
        "typical_volume": 17563.85,
        "trend": 48.051667,
        "fair_value": 41.896378,
        "relative_strength": -12.178761,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 2.978192,
        "energy": 15.71328,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 16013.95,
        "trend": 48.103833,
        "fair_value": 41.983494,
        "relative_strength": -12.474423,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
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        "energy": 11.057873,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 51.130001,
        "volume": 1253,
        "typical_volume": 13013.95,
        "trend": 48.192333,
        "fair_value": 42.087564,
        "relative_strength": -5.788733,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.350406,
        "energy": 30.850799,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 50.32,
        "volume": 883,
        "typical_volume": 12684.3,
        "trend": 48.320833,
        "fair_value": 42.184391,
        "relative_strength": -9.801842,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Momentum cooling",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 39.547381,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 50.099998,
        "volume": 8925,
        "typical_volume": 11655.3,
        "trend": 48.478333,
        "fair_value": 42.281827,
        "relative_strength": -9.630879,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 55.22643,
        "energy": 52.425519,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.090999,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 50.650002,
        "volume": 5557,
        "typical_volume": 11453.75,
        "trend": 48.6395,
        "fair_value": 42.375288,
        "relative_strength": -7.137672,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 64.289437,
        "energy": 66.283665,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.394333,
          49.732364,
          49.452024,
          49.269215
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 51.580002,
        "volume": 1978,
        "typical_volume": 10843.85,
        "trend": 48.851333,
        "fair_value": 42.475961,
        "relative_strength": -5.122762,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 75.965142,
        "energy": 71.988726,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.838001,
          50.160546,
          49.645714,
          49.458925
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 48.965,
        "volume": 16716,
        "typical_volume": 10565.4,
        "trend": 48.953333,
        "fair_value": 42.569423,
        "relative_strength": -10.228068,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.884961,
        "energy": 30.449148,
        "activity_lines": [
          50.241001,
          50.044364,
          49.584405,
          49.466258
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 47.77,
        "volume": 6905,
        "typical_volume": 10447.95,
        "trend": 49.019167,
        "fair_value": 42.654872,
        "relative_strength": -14.604448,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 9.063052,
        "energy": 5.68646,
        "activity_lines": [
          49.390001,
          49.709455,
          49.420786,
          49.389914
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}