{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41d37ea7-ce12-4c7a-8f74-4354fc97012b", "symbol": "HMJS", "name": "HSBC MSCI JAPAN UCITS ETF", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.204, "architecture_energy": 47.686, "architecture_maturity": 64.696, "architecture_confidence": 94.573, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.52, "rotation_up": 38.87, "upward_expansion": 69.14, "deceleration": 97.12, "rotation_down": 29.15, "downward_expansion": 11.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 54.418, 54.390727, 53.603143, 52.671011 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 55.950001, "trend_reference": 51.468667, "distance_from_trend": 0.087069, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.138398, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.327768, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.739624, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.118776, "excess_performance": 0.065465, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.087069, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057945, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.327768, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046447, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077396, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054821, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.118776, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.251521, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 631, "relative_activity": 0.403221, "balance": 5.251521, "dry_up": 0.52703, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.023304, "annualized_volatility": 0.197487, "from_high_reference": -0.000714, "from_low_reference": 0.36998 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 51.468667, "fair_value_reference": 42.138398, "structural_low": 47.439999, "invalidation": "A 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"orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059801, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059774, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034132, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.044241, "active": false }, { "regime": 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51.214796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 54.560001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1283.75, "trend": 50.093, "fair_value": 41.500962, "relative_strength": 9.719218, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.58704, "energy": 85.167174, "activity_lines": [ 54.714667, 53.985455, 52.435476, 51.521893 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 54.66, "volume": 5379, "typical_volume": 1544.65, "trend": 50.389333, "fair_value": 41.634487, "relative_strength": 11.613687, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.766055, "energy": 65.52754, "activity_lines": [ 54.741334, 54.241455, 52.742762, 51.816538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 52.689999, "volume": 522, "typical_volume": 1559.4, "trend": 50.602333, "fair_value": 41.753526, "relative_strength": 7.135701, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.751395, "energy": 49.997003, "activity_lines": [ 54.06, 54.059818, 52.846857, 51.964968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 53.919998, "volume": 248, "typical_volume": 1566.75, "trend": 50.871667, "fair_value": 41.872949, "relative_strength": 8.796878, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.314312, "energy": 38.965738, "activity_lines": [ 53.868666, 54.087636, 53.065476, 52.179011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 53.68, "volume": 1898, "typical_volume": 1533.35, "trend": 51.132333, "fair_value": 41.997885, "relative_strength": 6.254952, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.472261, "energy": 30.488716, "activity_lines": [ 53.735333, 54.051818, 53.238095, 52.360193 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 55.950001, "volume": 631, "typical_volume": 1564.9, "trend": 51.468667, "fair_value": 42.138398, "relative_strength": 7.739624, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.204238, "energy": 47.686412, "activity_lines": [ 54.418, 54.390727, 53.603143, 52.671011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }