{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41d60a13-a660-4aac-b968-f260cc88399b", "symbol": "ZTS", "name": "Zoetis Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -72.389, "architecture_energy": 63.475, "architecture_maturity": 88.232, "architecture_confidence": 94.976, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 29.85, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 50.2, "rotation_down": 50.04, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 75.040695, 75.531091, 80.604791, 89.132361 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 72.66, "trend_reference": 100.477037, "distance_from_trend": -0.27685, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 151.052027, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.518974, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.481026, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.427297, "excess_performance": -0.552922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.27685, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131461, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.518974, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040824, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.44481, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.427297, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.687356, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 53482567, "relative_activity": 1.727168, "balance": 0.687356, "dry_up": 1.103584, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.078776, "annualized_volatility": 0.519859, "from_high_reference": -0.541738, "from_low_reference": 0.023722 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 100.477037, "fair_value_reference": 151.052027, "structural_low": 70.976333, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": -0.019647, "positive_rate": 0.40625, "directional_follow_through": 0.59375, "median_excess_return": -0.013387, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.177676, "worst_return": -0.390909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.047218, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.072172, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.16801, "worst_return": -0.355267, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019052, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.10468, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.05108, "worst_return": -0.38996, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.013055, "energy": 64.307702, "activity_lines": [ 75.66131, 76.931281, 87.854737, 96.69883 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 76.031174, "volume": 31722444, "typical_volume": 29080557.45, "trend": 105.502755, "fair_value": 153.073255, "relative_strength": -42.233556, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.570489, "energy": 62.454736, "activity_lines": [ 75.49689, 76.607455, 85.760592, 94.700315 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 75.35, "volume": 26562590, "typical_volume": 29408989.0, "trend": 103.842789, "fair_value": 152.379762, "relative_strength": -41.546509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.79545, "energy": 60.802639, "activity_lines": [ 75.341335, 76.283394, 83.861121, 92.754976 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 77.29, "volume": 24924366, "typical_volume": 29777682.85, "trend": 102.257735, "fair_value": 151.768526, "relative_strength": -39.806917, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.754052, "energy": 54.500085, "activity_lines": [ 76.020201, 76.291515, 82.363354, 91.041893 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 72.66, "volume": 53482567, "typical_volume": 30965473.3, "trend": 100.477037, "fair_value": 151.052027, "relative_strength": -44.481026, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.388699, "energy": 63.474583, "activity_lines": [ 75.040695, 75.531091, 80.604791, 89.132361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }