{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41d7d731-358f-4cff-ad8d-7158b3045f3e", "symbol": "RWL", "name": "INVESCO EXCHANGE TRADED FD TR II S&P 500 REVENUE ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 88.292, "architecture_energy": 83.816, "architecture_maturity": 37.887, "architecture_confidence": 82.379, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.0, "rotation_up": 75.78, "upward_expansion": 95.12, "deceleration": 43.54, "rotation_down": 19.54, "downward_expansion": 17.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 131.932, 130.635931, 128.28019, 125.817248 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 134.12, "trend_reference": 123.018096, "distance_from_trend": 0.090246, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 100.082382, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.340096, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.568363, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.114403, "excess_performance": -0.011222, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.090246, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045204, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.340096, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044167, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.015684, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022798, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114403, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.301927, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1509065, "relative_activity": 1.249061, "balance": 4.301927, "dry_up": 1.100071, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017368, "annualized_volatility": 0.095099, "from_high_reference": -0.004897, "from_low_reference": 0.302165 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 123.018096, "fair_value_reference": 100.082382, "structural_low": 112.21, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 44, "median_return": 0.012712, "positive_rate": 0.659091, "directional_follow_through": 0.659091, "median_excess_return": -0.002734, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.059117, "worst_return": -0.092082, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.026132, "positive_rate": 0.823529, "directional_follow_through": 0.823529, "median_excess_return": 0.005736, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.081621, "worst_return": -0.070743, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.068951, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.001856, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.126452, "worst_return": -0.04646, "sufficient": true }, { 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122.613406 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 130.28, "volume": 1827789, "typical_volume": 1257442.85, "trend": 120.85843, "fair_value": 98.725244, "relative_strength": 1.52959, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.014078, "energy": 79.119899, "activity_lines": [ 128.992512, 128.002591, 125.166359, 123.254604 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 130.33, "volume": 988838, "typical_volume": 1227614.05, "trend": 121.404904, "fair_value": 99.057728, "relative_strength": 3.049168, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.609933, "energy": 85.359221, "activity_lines": [ 129.572503, 128.600412, 125.908919, 123.865673 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 130.2, "volume": 1005878, "typical_volume": 1179254.05, "trend": 121.907541, "fair_value": 99.384765, "relative_strength": 3.432122, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.488895, "energy": 81.4663, "activity_lines": [ 129.988, 129.059624, 126.592861, 124.433099 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 131.71, "volume": 1812464, "typical_volume": 1186350.25, "trend": 122.468149, "fair_value": 99.727264, "relative_strength": 3.357885, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.40101, "energy": 83.545905, "activity_lines": [ 130.688, 129.681136, 127.360147, 125.065516 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 134.12, "volume": 1509065, "typical_volume": 1208159.75, "trend": 123.018096, "fair_value": 100.082382, "relative_strength": 1.568363, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 88.291767, "energy": 83.816187, "activity_lines": [ 131.932, 130.635931, 128.28019, 125.817248 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }