{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41d9aa90-65ca-4f11-b98a-b06175963ba6", "symbol": "IAG", "name": "IAMGold Corporation", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 85.26, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -28.338, "architecture_energy": 23.555, "architecture_maturity": 25.131, "architecture_confidence": 64.096, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.97, "rotation_up": 22.54, "upward_expansion": 11.57, "deceleration": 57.63, "rotation_down": 44.18, "downward_expansion": 70.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.729333, 15.722364, 16.274857, 17.02043 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.32, "trend_reference": 17.983, "distance_from_trend": 0.01874, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.334679, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.198045, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.919282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.041841, "excess_performance": -0.167466, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.01874, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007922, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.198045, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.392949, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.029193, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207271, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.041841, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.946941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36390450, "relative_activity": 1.251682, "balance": 0.946941, "dry_up": 0.98576, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119373, "annualized_volatility": 0.735843, "from_high_reference": -0.26337, "from_low_reference": 1.576653 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.983, "fair_value_reference": 8.334679, "structural_low": 13.615, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.060663, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.05457, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.761905, "worst_return": -0.239362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.08642, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.061301, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.582677, "worst_return": -0.438053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.05102, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.087687, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.127572, "worst_return": -0.110619, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.137838, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.296758, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.170543, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009615, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.13373, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.397036, "energy": 58.076169, "activity_lines": [ 15.352, 15.867636, 16.666571, 17.465699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.66, "volume": 24756221, "typical_volume": 30260943.8, "trend": 18.013667, "fair_value": 8.156987, "relative_strength": -12.378906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.611837, "energy": 59.119998, "activity_lines": [ 14.987333, 15.583636, 16.403238, 17.242989 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.19, "volume": 27817551, "typical_volume": 29923978.85, "trend": 17.946, "fair_value": 8.232051, "relative_strength": -16.662526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.29875, "energy": 64.509251, "activity_lines": [ 14.614, 15.256364, 16.128952, 16.996301 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.32, "volume": 36390450, "typical_volume": 29073241.45, "trend": 17.983, "fair_value": 8.334679, "relative_strength": 2.919282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.3378, "energy": 23.554793, "activity_lines": [ 15.729333, 15.722364, 16.274857, 17.02043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }