{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41e49ea1-2db1-4bf6-9c2e-c5004b0fccdb", "symbol": "KSTR", "name": "KraneShares ICBCCS SSE Star Market 50 Index UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 28.849, "architecture_energy": 27.539, "architecture_maturity": 65.819, "architecture_confidence": 90.653, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.34, "rotation_up": 24.38, "upward_expansion": 57.82, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 38.97, "downward_expansion": 21.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.974, 25.019818, 24.304386, 23.072484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 24.084999, "trend_reference": 21.6936, "distance_from_trend": 0.110235, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.850538, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.621827, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.773575, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.282481, "excess_performance": 0.11159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.110235, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.130419, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.621827, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030885, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047736, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.114213, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.282481, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.535593, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75638, "relative_activity": 2.161132, "balance": 1.535593, "dry_up": 1.808874, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106306, "annualized_volatility": 0.483455, "from_high_reference": -0.203275, "from_low_reference": 0.771216 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.6936, "fair_value_reference": 14.850538, "structural_low": 16.724001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.001959, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.021369, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.184591, "worst_return": -0.054211, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.058345, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.002521, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.228174, "worst_return": -0.035427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.163926, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.03114, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.367817, "worst_return": -0.039965, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.081992, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.006056, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.023413, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.105496, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059625, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084521, 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"volume": 21361, "typical_volume": 24072.3, "trend": 20.9311, "fair_value": 14.601147, "relative_strength": 30.499607, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.464182, "energy": 91.779228, "activity_lines": [ 27.676667, 26.149727, 23.772309, 22.450991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.594999, "volume": 30344, "typical_volume": 25231.35, "trend": 21.1396, "fair_value": 14.663782, "relative_strength": 7.988436, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.57443, "energy": 59.892507, "activity_lines": [ 26.588667, 25.876545, 23.931405, 22.622856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 24.530001, "volume": 71894, "typical_volume": 28377.85, "trend": 21.3814, "fair_value": 14.730115, "relative_strength": 11.732118, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.385069, "energy": 44.736217, "activity_lines": [ 25.768, 25.749546, 24.161238, 22.841591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.415001, "volume": 75361, "typical_volume": 31729.75, "trend": 21.539767, "fair_value": 14.783314, "relative_strength": 0.946468, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.578144, "energy": 21.050481, "activity_lines": [ 24.394334, 25.214909, 24.162205, 22.908275 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.084999, "volume": 75638, "typical_volume": 34999.25, "trend": 21.6936, "fair_value": 14.850538, "relative_strength": 4.773575, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.849134, "energy": 27.538944, "activity_lines": [ 23.974, 25.019818, 24.304386, 23.072484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }