{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41eb6f36-335f-4b9f-87b8-92e09202a9c8", "symbol": "603026", "name": "Shida Shinghwa Advanced Material Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 71.486, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -38.302, "architecture_energy": 71.208, "architecture_maturity": 19.302, "architecture_confidence": 65.26, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.76, "rotation_up": 16.33, "upward_expansion": 25.27, "deceleration": 43.03, "rotation_down": 71.44, "downward_expansion": 64.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 64.438002, 71.030728, 80.549438, 81.715241 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 67.300003, "trend_reference": 80.721917, "distance_from_trend": -0.166273, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 49.860417, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349768, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.405026, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.0085, "excess_performance": 0.051704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166273, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010387, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.349768, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.800689, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.05405, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.644102, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0085, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.829752, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 43893158, "relative_activity": 0.634755, "balance": 0.829752, "dry_up": 0.801577, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.149289, "annualized_volatility": 0.72871, "from_high_reference": -0.448858, "from_low_reference": 0.861418 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 80.721917, "fair_value_reference": 49.860417, "structural_low": 54.580002, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.028842, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.037809, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.028842, "worst_return": -0.028842, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.264629, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.182111, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.264629, "worst_return": -0.264629, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.406484, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.317058, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.406484, "worst_return": -0.406484, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"activity_lines": [ 82.323334, 85.872462, 89.660454, 86.466077 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 60.0, "volume": 41817178, "typical_volume": 69607512.0, "trend": 81.893143, "fair_value": 49.748117, "relative_strength": -9.974611, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -44.863738, "energy": 59.632576, "activity_lines": [ 74.033334, 80.463071, 87.033989, 85.024648 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 62.029999, "volume": 66255774, "typical_volume": 70999905.1, "trend": 81.591443, "fair_value": 49.777227, "relative_strength": -8.738951, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.468408, "energy": 66.423479, "activity_lines": [ 68.176667, 76.220545, 84.631156, 83.743155 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 63.830002, "volume": 69749377, "typical_volume": 70587442.75, "trend": 80.971232, "fair_value": 49.813013, "relative_strength": -7.111381, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.172387, "energy": 71.993804, "activity_lines": [ 64.964667, 73.006728, 82.403297, 82.597256 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.300003, "volume": 43893158, "typical_volume": 69149763.9, "trend": 80.721917, "fair_value": 49.860417, "relative_strength": -5.405026, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.302161, "energy": 71.208237, "activity_lines": [ 64.438002, 71.030728, 80.549438, 81.715241 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }