{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41edb8b1-0307-4c7d-8e0c-5a5d9988bc53", "symbol": "SHYAMCENT", "name": "Shyam Century Ferrous Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -9.529, "architecture_energy": 10.041, "architecture_maturity": 17.605, "architecture_confidence": 40.177, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 61.46, "rotation_up": 23.03, "upward_expansion": 22.32, "deceleration": 63.67, "rotation_down": 43.75, "downward_expansion": 31.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.228, 5.318, 5.277333, 5.207935 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 5.03, "trend_reference": 5.233667, "distance_from_trend": -0.038915, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.539808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.598877, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.054564, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.164452, "excess_performance": -0.120743, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038915, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046807, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.598877, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020071, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.164452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.380991, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 373020, "relative_activity": 0.937738, "balance": 0.380991, "dry_up": 0.537826, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103533, "annualized_volatility": 0.498738, "from_high_reference": -0.484103, "from_low_reference": 0.366848 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.233667, "fair_value_reference": 12.539808, "structural_low": 3.68, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.006772, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.411765, "median_excess_return": -0.022889, "regime_survival": 0.588235, "best_return": 0.262411, "worst_return": -0.100248, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.019537, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.077468, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.523404, "worst_return": -0.206013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.121456, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.18127, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 1.148936, "worst_return": -0.571269, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.174184, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.187276, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.86425, "worst_return": -0.344393, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2024-01-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.21066, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-01-12", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.085106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.137529, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146707, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.045918, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193764, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.331433, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043984, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.113861, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.290234, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.182377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003731, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030829, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.25, "volume": 1544855, "typical_volume": 1359625.55, "trend": 18.621667, "fair_value": 15.265127, "relative_strength": -15.040803, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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9.795387, "activity_lines": [ 5.167333, 5.173273, 5.095667, 5.186237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 5.72, "volume": 89878, "typical_volume": 448357.1, "trend": 5.382333, "fair_value": 13.001731, "relative_strength": -3.87249, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.013407, "energy": 10.291595, "activity_lines": [ 5.374667, 5.254909, 5.159571, 5.206645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.77, "volume": 325620, "typical_volume": 449011.1, "trend": 5.368667, "fair_value": 12.914038, "relative_strength": -2.081198, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.039257, "energy": 30.121953, "activity_lines": [ 5.551333, 5.343455, 5.227762, 5.231656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.36, "volume": 238761, "typical_volume": 437440.8, "trend": 5.337, "fair_value": 12.820833, "relative_strength": -8.773352, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.075839, "energy": 37.043048, "activity_lines": [ 5.539333, 5.358182, 5.255333, 5.231097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.34, "volume": 99121, "typical_volume": 414893.85, "trend": 5.308667, "fair_value": 12.729423, "relative_strength": -6.194168, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.017585, "energy": 36.693299, "activity_lines": [ 5.491333, 5.376727, 5.279857, 5.23129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.19, "volume": 144859, "typical_volume": 404143.75, "trend": 5.273333, "fair_value": 12.627436, "relative_strength": -10.400444, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 15.817544, "energy": 11.899562, "activity_lines": [ 5.376667, 5.364727, 5.287571, 5.223634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.03, "volume": 373020, "typical_volume": 397786.85, "trend": 5.233667, "fair_value": 12.539808, "relative_strength": -13.054564, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.528869, "energy": 10.04137, "activity_lines": [ 5.228, 5.318, 5.277333, 5.207935 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }