{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41f84c6e-9d97-4c18-b133-f149f0dfec9e", "symbol": "TWI", "name": "Titan International Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.63, "architecture_energy": 22.669, "architecture_maturity": 41.808, "architecture_confidence": 91.575, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.86, "rotation_up": 25.52, "upward_expansion": 8.86, "deceleration": 32.25, "rotation_down": 41.27, "downward_expansion": 70.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.493333, 7.526727, 7.57181, 7.751699 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 7.36, "trend_reference": 8.181333, "distance_from_trend": -0.100391, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.258846, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.205085, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -19.736776, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.334539, "excess_performance": -0.460164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.100391, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018319, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.205085, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.029223, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.197368, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.024242, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.334539, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.229477, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2893282, "relative_activity": 0.76467, "balance": 1.229477, "dry_up": 0.629921, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.094586, "annualized_volatility": 0.477049, "from_high_reference": -0.37094, "from_low_reference": 0.144635 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.181333, "fair_value_reference": 9.258846, "structural_low": 6.43, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.016575, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.010935, "regime_survival": 0.761905, "best_return": 0.216639, "worst_return": -0.27619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.181347, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.1056, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.411227, "worst_return": -0.246753, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.013433, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.033998, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.552897, "worst_return": -0.395671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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4155553.6, "trend": 8.241667, "fair_value": 9.343269, "relative_strength": -14.749385, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.686837, "energy": 21.150847, "activity_lines": [ 7.526667, 7.519818, 7.591667, 7.887763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.02, "volume": 1821131, "typical_volume": 4044966.8, "trend": 8.246, "fair_value": 9.316603, "relative_strength": -9.592892, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.546015, "energy": 16.106343, "activity_lines": [ 7.68, 7.615273, 7.629238, 7.873462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.22, "volume": 2708661, "typical_volume": 3913439.3, "trend": 8.221333, "fair_value": 9.288013, "relative_strength": -18.957998, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.018688, "energy": 24.891768, "activity_lines": [ 7.536667, 7.557091, 7.593667, 7.807269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.36, "volume": 2893282, "typical_volume": 3783699.35, "trend": 8.181333, "fair_value": 9.258846, "relative_strength": -19.736776, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.62957, "energy": 22.669403, "activity_lines": [ 7.493333, 7.526727, 7.57181, 7.751699 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }