{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41fd14f1-0ad1-487d-9b00-5899ee98f4d5", "symbol": "002614", "name": "Xiamen Comfort Science&Technology Group Co., Ltd", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.907, "architecture_energy": 52.203, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.335, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.14, "rotation_up": 27.71, "upward_expansion": 21.5, "deceleration": 66.99, "rotation_down": 45.32, "downward_expansion": 71.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.665333, 4.647636, 4.90464, 5.244884 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.77, "trend_reference": 5.751048, "distance_from_trend": -0.170586, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.362622, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.250309, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.850731, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.302246, "excess_performance": -0.309646, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.170586, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.128954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.250309, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112806, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268507, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044164, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.302246, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.429892, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 33634096, "relative_activity": 1.004502, "balance": 0.429892, "dry_up": 1.075576, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.062115, "annualized_volatility": 0.240678, "from_high_reference": -0.424456, "from_low_reference": 0.091533 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.751048, "fair_value_reference": 6.362622, "structural_low": 4.37, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.013493, "positive_rate": 0.466667, "directional_follow_through": 0.533333, "median_excess_return": -0.017426, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.244286, "worst_return": -0.161362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.005181, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": 0.010073, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.398887, "worst_return": -0.348306, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.041173, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008989, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.267227, "worst_return": -0.34493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.693885, "energy": 66.904067, "activity_lines": [ 4.599333, 4.726336, 5.111474, 5.493054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.43, "volume": 37408383, "typical_volume": 34576842.55, "trend": 5.923471, "fair_value": 6.397757, "relative_strength": -30.901818, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.797501, "energy": 68.246884, "activity_lines": [ 4.544667, 4.645766, 5.012361, 5.389691 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.74, "volume": 30998401, "typical_volume": 34011444.8, "trend": 5.831038, "fair_value": 6.380597, "relative_strength": -24.232194, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.565185, "energy": 62.417774, "activity_lines": [ 4.610667, 4.639273, 4.952875, 5.313338 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.77, "volume": 33634096, "typical_volume": 33483363.1, "trend": 5.751048, "fair_value": 6.362622, "relative_strength": -26.850731, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.906622, "energy": 52.20255, "activity_lines": [ 4.665333, 4.647636, 4.90464, 5.244884 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }