{ "ticker": { "uuid": "41fda828-4118-4a07-b01a-888ca17c7961", "symbol": "600807", "name": "Jinan High-tech Development Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.195, "architecture_energy": 44.671, "architecture_maturity": 83.978, "architecture_confidence": 64.853, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.51, "rotation_up": 25.76, "upward_expansion": 18.45, "deceleration": 66.63, "rotation_down": 45.37, "downward_expansion": 68.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.436667, 2.435636, 2.588476, 2.742774 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.52, "trend_reference": 2.956333, "distance_from_trend": -0.147593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.135321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.196254, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.796994, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.277937, "excess_performance": -0.234733, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.147593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090639, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.196254, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.183716, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17797, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072106, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.277937, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.211134, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 65112268, "relative_activity": 0.881271, "balance": 0.211134, "dry_up": 0.934167, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083639, "annualized_volatility": 0.292337, "from_high_reference": -0.37, "from_low_reference": 0.135135 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.956333, "fair_value_reference": 3.135321, "structural_low": 2.22, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.002905, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.013303, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.30837, "worst_return": -0.134948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.009868, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.034903, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.674074, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.04878, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.006862, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.979522, "worst_return": -0.083558, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 72032655, "typical_volume": 78503812.15, "trend": 3.034, "fair_value": 3.148397, "relative_strength": -19.612568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.014876, "energy": 79.176676, "activity_lines": [ 2.411333, 2.499455, 2.698476, 2.854559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.32, "volume": 74280705, "typical_volume": 75734716.5, "trend": 3.003667, "fair_value": 3.143782, "relative_strength": -22.776578, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.95194, "energy": 62.216993, "activity_lines": [ 2.379333, 2.448182, 2.64681, 2.808495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.44, "volume": 64656200, "typical_volume": 74485444.05, "trend": 2.975, "fair_value": 3.139551, "relative_strength": -18.650032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.075203, "energy": 56.142202, "activity_lines": [ 2.399333, 2.430545, 2.611667, 2.772129 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.52, "volume": 65112268, "typical_volume": 73884498.85, "trend": 2.956333, "fair_value": 3.135321, "relative_strength": -17.796994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.194833, "energy": 44.670986, "activity_lines": [ 2.436667, 2.435636, 2.588476, 2.742774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }