{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42075109-71f6-47d6-b320-cdf66a98515e", "symbol": "RMCF", "name": "Rocky Mountain Chocolate Factory", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.216, "architecture_energy": 87.516, "architecture_maturity": 32.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.009, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.82, "rotation_up": 16.31, "upward_expansion": 21.16, "deceleration": 37.42, "rotation_down": 76.08, "downward_expansion": 99.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.885113, 1.014304, 1.390889, 1.638853 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.8302, "trend_reference": 1.918867, "distance_from_trend": -0.567349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.477327, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.664881, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -60.316416, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.658354, "excess_performance": -0.845808, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.567349, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.087847, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.664881, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.565793, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.603164, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.760653, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.658354, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.45199, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121574, "relative_activity": 0.382726, "balance": 0.45199, "dry_up": 0.526118, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.317143, "annualized_volatility": 0.671392, "from_high_reference": -0.722341, "from_low_reference": 0.000241 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.918867, "fair_value_reference": 2.477327, "structural_low": 0.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": -0.012849, "positive_rate": 0.419355, "directional_follow_through": 0.580645, "median_excess_return": -0.036964, "regime_survival": 0.83871, "best_return": 0.59, "worst_return": -0.259928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.065004, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.074846, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.362108, "worst_return": -0.443525, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.193923, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.286703, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.428691, "worst_return": -0.446239, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.294793, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.453368, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.75, "worst_return": -0.670213, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.457831, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.069182, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120879, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.355814, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147541, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.186667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25974, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006135, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221519, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.085, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.259912, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.325, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.238349, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 5.22, "volume": 56237, "typical_volume": 49888.65, "trend": 5.333223, "fair_value": 6.170821, "relative_strength": -21.384042, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"close": 0.9033, "volume": 182581, "typical_volume": 318089.85, "trend": 1.99418, "fair_value": 2.540457, "relative_strength": -55.330877, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.299479, "energy": 87.61562, "activity_lines": [ 1.000993, 1.19458, 1.573076, 1.786043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.8404, "volume": 165751, "typical_volume": 320315.4, "trend": 1.95786, "fair_value": 2.508697, "relative_strength": -58.182346, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.148452, "energy": 84.254204, "activity_lines": [ 0.936767, 1.095464, 1.47885, 1.711605 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8302, "volume": 121574, "typical_volume": 317653.1, "trend": 1.918867, "fair_value": 2.477327, "relative_strength": -60.316416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.216475, "energy": 87.515779, "activity_lines": [ 0.885113, 1.014304, 1.390889, 1.638853 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }