{ "ticker": { "uuid": "420c73dd-ef49-4614-9fff-08bbbaa7315d", "symbol": "3019", "name": "Asia Optical Co., Inc.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-21", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 48.524, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.839, "architecture_energy": 19.883, "architecture_maturity": 13.211, "architecture_confidence": 62.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 56.06, "rotation_up": 21.76, "upward_expansion": 9.15, "deceleration": 52.94, "rotation_down": 49.39, "downward_expansion": 48.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 133.5, 135.178136, 138.657718, 137.552081 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 135.5, "trend_reference": 137.583247, "distance_from_trend": -0.015142, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 111.233555, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.218158, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.159532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056825, "excess_performance": -0.402557, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015142, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011076, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.218158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.20757, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.301595, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011518, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056825, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.06539, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13158581, "relative_activity": 0.425459, "balance": 1.06539, "dry_up": 0.475526, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.114883, "annualized_volatility": 0.407637, "from_high_reference": -0.224501, "from_low_reference": 0.163249 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 137.583247, "fair_value_reference": 111.233555, "structural_low": 116.484071, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.002649, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02163, "regime_survival": 0.388889, "best_return": 0.101974, "worst_return": -0.118243, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.027908, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.01918, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.87955, "worst_return": -0.09062, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.007564, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.038114, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.656161, "worst_return": -0.056825, "sufficient": true }, { 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30581788.25, "trend": 137.853947, "fair_value": 109.804752, "relative_strength": -33.615405, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.371134, "energy": 21.252383, "activity_lines": [ 133.466667, 138.671859, 139.520329, 138.257201 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 129.5, "volume": 14045695, "typical_volume": 30349082.25, "trend": 137.527429, "fair_value": 110.253547, "relative_strength": -33.740521, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.510096, "energy": 26.020094, "activity_lines": [ 130.833333, 136.379965, 138.834964, 137.718237 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 137.0, "volume": 13804634, "typical_volume": 30633104.5, "trend": 137.547981, "fair_value": 110.746299, "relative_strength": -31.387467, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.722278, "energy": 23.830765, "activity_lines": [ 132.2, 135.815125, 138.850439, 137.684209 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-21", "close": 135.5, "volume": 13158581, "typical_volume": 30927981.3, "trend": 137.583247, "fair_value": 111.233555, "relative_strength": -30.159532, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.839077, "energy": 19.882612, "activity_lines": [ 133.5, 135.178136, 138.657718, 137.552081 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }