{ "ticker": { "uuid": "420da6f6-5709-40f9-9184-31e906bcde01", "symbol": "XWTS", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI World Communication Services UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.679, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 19.16, "architecture_energy": 16.532, "architecture_maturity": 17.414, "architecture_confidence": 72.254, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.28, "rotation_up": 29.03, "upward_expansion": 40.71, "deceleration": 73.64, "rotation_down": 34.04, "downward_expansion": 39.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.041667, 26.052, 26.305333, 26.178677 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 26.615, "trend_reference": 26.007667, "distance_from_trend": 0.023352, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.819692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.21977, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -7.500308, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.053225, "excess_performance": -0.029658, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.023352, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.003724, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.21977, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083469, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.075003, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.053225, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.38836, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.38836, "dry_up": 0.093194, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.02646, "annualized_volatility": 0.156557, "from_high_reference": -0.170508, "from_low_reference": 0.100021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.007667, "fair_value_reference": 21.819692, "structural_low": 24.215, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010013, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": 0.000617, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.051018, "worst_return": -0.122598, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019201, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.057515, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.124089, "worst_return": -0.052235, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.159891, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.143239, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.261936, "worst_return": -0.130381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083315, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025213, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.011069, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.097942, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020336, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.027186, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056656, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022971, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042908, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 14.682, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 454.05, "trend": 14.099267, "fair_value": 15.653692, "relative_strength": 10.203109, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", 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30.191042, "activity_lines": [ 26.000667, 26.409091, 26.339857, 26.149892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 26.67, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4420.0, "trend": 26.004, "fair_value": 21.54148, "relative_strength": -5.91885, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.823293, "energy": 29.903981, "activity_lines": [ 26.168667, 26.410818, 26.395333, 26.195054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 26.120001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4407.5, "trend": 26.015167, "fair_value": 21.614788, "relative_strength": -8.480824, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.025648, "energy": 20.305598, "activity_lines": [ 26.154334, 26.314909, 26.391881, 26.202537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.52, "volume": 5, "typical_volume": 1530.05, "trend": 26.0125, "fair_value": 21.679134, "relative_strength": -10.335586, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.611954, "energy": 22.898733, "activity_lines": [ 25.958667, 26.129, 26.3275, 26.170591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 25.52, "volume": 560, "typical_volume": 1553.15, "trend": 25.997167, "fair_value": 21.745557, "relative_strength": -10.249876, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.954541, "energy": 23.720367, "activity_lines": [ 25.827, 25.974364, 26.264476, 26.138817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 26.615, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1515.65, "trend": 26.007667, "fair_value": 21.819692, "relative_strength": -7.500308, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.159977, "energy": 16.532106, "activity_lines": [ 26.041667, 26.052, 26.305333, 26.178677 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }