{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42135228-c587-4de9-822c-41f5b5ea3f10", "symbol": "BIDU", "name": "Baidu, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.389, "architecture_energy": 51.581, "architecture_maturity": 22.984, "architecture_confidence": 89.249, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.5, "rotation_up": 15.29, "upward_expansion": 8.9, "deceleration": 43.84, "rotation_down": 58.86, "downward_expansion": 79.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 95.233334, 96.28, 101.001904, 102.866236 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 95.300003, "trend_reference": 107.356665, "distance_from_trend": -0.112305, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 95.701282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.004193, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.650512, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218852, "excess_performance": -0.393099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112305, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032067, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.004193, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.236232, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.266505, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.307036, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218852, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.900524, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103, "relative_activity": 0.837398, "balance": 0.900524, "dry_up": 0.54878, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07999, "annualized_volatility": 0.441512, "from_high_reference": -0.324113, "from_low_reference": 0.296599 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 107.356665, "fair_value_reference": 95.701282, "structural_low": 88.300003, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.019276, "positive_rate": 0.566667, "directional_follow_through": 0.433333, "median_excess_return": 0.005689, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.376197, "worst_return": -0.152505, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.017578, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.055423, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.619412, "worst_return": -0.125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.073469, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.09552, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.399177, "worst_return": -0.099738, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"2026-07-03", "close": 99.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 131.0, "trend": 110.216665, "fair_value": 96.870513, "relative_strength": -23.456801, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.962666, "energy": 67.902317, "activity_lines": [ 97.46, 103.170908, 104.729522, 107.1643 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 103.199997, "volume": 391, "typical_volume": 150.55, "trend": 110.096665, "fair_value": 96.671795, "relative_strength": -19.156979, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.741795, "energy": 61.720639, "activity_lines": [ 98.839999, 102.463635, 104.537618, 106.711611 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 93.800003, "volume": 145, "typical_volume": 157.8, "trend": 109.676665, "fair_value": 96.453846, "relative_strength": -24.968837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.285868, "energy": 60.177316, "activity_lines": [ 97.313334, 100.138181, 103.507618, 105.660214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 93.599998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 152.0, "trend": 109.323332, "fair_value": 96.152564, "relative_strength": -26.011841, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.424612, "energy": 43.263973, "activity_lines": [ 96.146666, 98.263636, 102.516666, 104.623009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.099998, "volume": 22, "typical_volume": 139.15, "trend": 108.306665, "fair_value": 95.891667, "relative_strength": -24.701257, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.128708, "energy": 40.418786, "activity_lines": [ 95.779999, 97.10909, 101.716189, 103.705375 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 95.300003, "volume": 103, "typical_volume": 123.0, "trend": 107.356665, "fair_value": 95.701282, "relative_strength": -26.650512, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.389473, "energy": 51.580571, "activity_lines": [ 95.233334, 96.28, 101.001904, 102.866236 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }