{ "ticker": { "uuid": "421513b3-5dce-41b9-bc76-c1fdcb8c361f", "symbol": "9A4U", "name": "ESR REIT", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 92.949, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Value reclamation", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -5.929, "architecture_energy": 19.074, "architecture_maturity": 35.187, "architecture_confidence": 51.888, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.55, "rotation_up": 42.63, "upward_expansion": 27.17, "deceleration": 41.27, "rotation_down": 21.72, "downward_expansion": 54.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.393181, 2.347386, 2.357873, 2.371975 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.45, "trend_reference": 2.414184, "distance_from_trend": 0.014836, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.429266, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.008535, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.827623, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047749, "excess_performance": -0.202584, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014836, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039968, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.008535, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021996, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.188276, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.071604, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047749, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.128777, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8688000, "relative_activity": 2.370551, "balance": 1.128777, "dry_up": 1.854074, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033942, "annualized_volatility": 0.227999, "from_high_reference": -0.126016, "from_low_reference": 0.128692 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.414184, "fair_value_reference": 2.429266, "structural_low": 2.170655, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.024645, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.01045, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.162533, "worst_return": -0.072289, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.063221, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.085405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209895, "worst_return": -0.156627, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.083054, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.152254, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.209895, "worst_return": -0.159999, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.098365, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.320998, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.005019, "worst_return": -0.200692, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.044211, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019608, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.008299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.162533, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.00365, "active": false }, { 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"typical_volume": 3305705.0, "trend": 2.426289, "fair_value": 2.431334, "relative_strength": -21.827432, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.699881, "energy": 73.738858, "activity_lines": [ 2.260473, 2.291617, 2.334774, 2.365097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.505338, "volume": 9571200, "typical_volume": 3400085.0, "trend": 2.422439, "fair_value": 2.430346, "relative_strength": -16.512801, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.008714, "energy": 12.779662, "activity_lines": [ 2.340228, 2.325672, 2.349329, 2.370197 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.45, "volume": 8688000, "typical_volume": 3664970.0, "trend": 2.414184, "fair_value": 2.429266, "relative_strength": -18.827623, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.929431, "energy": 19.074201, "activity_lines": [ 2.393181, 2.347386, 2.357873, 2.371975 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }