{ "ticker": { "uuid": "421d9c7d-3a09-43c6-9f50-4f9a638e30b6", "symbol": "000756", "name": "Shandong Xinhua Pharmaceutical Company Limited", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -19.313, "architecture_energy": 10.184, "architecture_maturity": 77.518, "architecture_confidence": 71.35, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.72, "rotation_up": 32.66, "upward_expansion": 23.97, "deceleration": 37.7, "rotation_down": 22.76, "downward_expansion": 53.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.647125, 13.448739, 13.507543, 13.86008 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.2, "trend_reference": 14.429244, "distance_from_trend": -0.015887, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.971274, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.110904, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.051988, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.106918, "excess_performance": -0.114318, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.015887, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065867, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.110904, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.026881, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10052, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.161934, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.419285, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 73003920, "relative_activity": 1.920955, "balance": 0.419285, "dry_up": 2.094318, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080393, "annualized_volatility": 0.313949, "from_high_reference": -0.240642, "from_low_reference": 0.212639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.429244, "fair_value_reference": 15.971274, "structural_low": 11.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": -0.025068, "positive_rate": 0.296296, "directional_follow_through": 0.703704, "median_excess_return": -0.012883, "regime_survival": 0.851852, "best_return": 0.321795, "worst_return": -0.123183, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.03239, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.059305, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.20098, "worst_return": -0.2351, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.014213, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.110396, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.180147, "worst_return": -0.14261, "sufficient": true }, { 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.834452, "energy": 29.757369, "activity_lines": [ 13.413195, 13.251831, 13.678935, 14.141316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.538001, "volume": 121515725, "typical_volume": 32482262.2, "trend": 14.648685, "fair_value": 16.095909, "relative_strength": -13.092471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.215128, "energy": 22.540319, "activity_lines": [ 13.590358, 13.278512, 13.622113, 14.064386 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.756772, "volume": 72255927, "typical_volume": 34199270.7, "trend": 14.545244, "fair_value": 16.047519, "relative_strength": -17.601992, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.398197, "energy": 27.359027, "activity_lines": [ 13.427244, 13.178642, 13.502041, 13.942327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.54, "volume": 51594037, "typical_volume": 35593087.4, "trend": 14.469578, "fair_value": 16.00636, "relative_strength": -10.464157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.419507, "energy": 17.454242, "activity_lines": [ 13.471422, 13.249055, 13.469054, 13.877472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.2, "volume": 73003920, "typical_volume": 38003968.75, "trend": 14.429244, "fair_value": 15.971274, "relative_strength": -10.051988, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.31332, "energy": 10.184474, "activity_lines": [ 13.647125, 13.448739, 13.507543, 13.86008 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }