{ "ticker": { "uuid": "421f309c-473d-45d9-afcd-e3bed5b6f503", "symbol": "600006", "name": "DongFeng Automobile Co. LTD", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.236, "architecture_energy": 44.96, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.977, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.02, "rotation_up": 26.38, "upward_expansion": 18.8, "deceleration": 66.97, "rotation_down": 47.1, "downward_expansion": 71.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.436, 5.413818, 5.732381, 5.973269 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.4, "trend_reference": 6.311333, "distance_from_trend": -0.144396, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.762073, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.201428, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.674006, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.220779, "excess_performance": -0.177575, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.144396, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093677, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.201428, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.219801, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20674, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.073128, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.220779, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.371097, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 74587141, "relative_activity": 1.164387, "balance": 0.371097, "dry_up": 1.420765, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.068091, "annualized_volatility": 0.24219, "from_high_reference": -0.395973, "from_low_reference": 0.065089 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.311333, "fair_value_reference": 6.762073, "structural_low": 5.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.041436, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.040895, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.773707, "worst_return": -0.144615, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044799, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.01357, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.446266, "worst_return": -0.243802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.093664, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.044843, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.402135, "worst_return": -0.212707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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6.156817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.33, "volume": 106897310, "typical_volume": 63753034.6, "trend": 6.420667, "fair_value": 6.766815, "relative_strength": -20.218239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.860302, "energy": 65.255239, "activity_lines": [ 5.282, 5.427273, 5.831143, 6.082387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.7, "volume": 102301402, "typical_volume": 64359696.35, "trend": 6.370667, "fair_value": 6.765469, "relative_strength": -14.540339, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.850617, "energy": 54.772656, "activity_lines": [ 5.426, 5.440545, 5.79319, 6.035892 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.4, "volume": 74587141, "typical_volume": 64057019.75, "trend": 6.311333, "fair_value": 6.762073, "relative_strength": -20.674006, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.235551, "energy": 44.96036, "activity_lines": [ 5.436, 5.413818, 5.732381, 5.973269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }