{ "ticker": { "uuid": "42278cd5-cdb3-462f-977d-8a3aa18e069c", "symbol": "300797", "name": "NCS Testing Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.076, "architecture_energy": 70.731, "architecture_maturity": 51.308, "architecture_confidence": 84.396, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.52, "rotation_up": 12.41, "upward_expansion": 14.89, "deceleration": 43.18, "rotation_down": 68.72, "downward_expansion": 85.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.054696, 12.503361, 13.404682, 14.1048 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 12.65, "trend_reference": 15.174162, "distance_from_trend": -0.166346, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.159658, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038729, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.248944, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.292901, "excess_performance": -0.300301, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166346, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075216, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038729, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273345, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.232489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046307, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.292901, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.789276, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16707403, "relative_activity": 1.230612, "balance": 0.789276, "dry_up": 1.38639, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080412, "annualized_volatility": 0.35722, "from_high_reference": -0.422374, "from_low_reference": 0.169131 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.174162, "fair_value_reference": 13.159658, "structural_low": 10.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.026588, "positive_rate": 0.3125, "directional_follow_through": 0.6875, "median_excess_return": -0.014754, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.461627, "worst_return": -0.141882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.02236, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.043024, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.471497, "worst_return": -0.160347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.044016, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.110309, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.453682, "worst_return": -0.175791, "sufficient": false }, { 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"fair_value": 13.151046, "relative_strength": -28.90007, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.581708, "energy": 86.99647, "activity_lines": [ 12.112673, 12.833355, 13.774824, 14.503509 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.96, "volume": 15990500, "typical_volume": 13517786.5, "trend": 15.317495, "fair_value": 13.151852, "relative_strength": -24.078478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.329621, "energy": 83.950651, "activity_lines": [ 11.922579, 12.57654, 13.546991, 14.276896 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.65, "volume": 16707403, "typical_volume": 13576494.2, "trend": 15.174162, "fair_value": 13.159658, "relative_strength": -23.248944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.07628, "energy": 70.731364, "activity_lines": [ 12.054696, 12.503361, 13.404682, 14.1048 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }