{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4228bd80-301d-4dbc-a253-1116cb9eb5f3", "symbol": "SUJA", "name": "iShares MSCI Japan SRI UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 90.081, "architecture_energy": 82.118, "architecture_maturity": 22.83, "architecture_confidence": 78.416, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 77.23, "upward_expansion": 92.66, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 13.79, "downward_expansion": 17.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 678.05, 668.586364, 652.588095, 642.404839 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 703.5, "trend_reference": 633.566667, "distance_from_trend": 0.11038, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 574.839103, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.223821, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 3.246598, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.115339, "excess_performance": 0.064104, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.11038, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018944, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.223821, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.126982, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.032466, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.073836, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.115339, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.024826, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 337189, "relative_activity": 2.159759, "balance": 3.024826, "dry_up": 1.320951, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026416, "annualized_volatility": 0.191587, "from_high_reference": -0.136545, "from_low_reference": 0.220295 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 633.566667, "fair_value_reference": 574.839103, "structural_low": 576.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.00711, "positive_rate": 0.380952, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.010869, "regime_survival": 0.52381, "best_return": 0.044229, "worst_return": -0.099824, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.005505, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.018918, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.045607, "worst_return": -0.055582, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.017935, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.026203, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.06053, "worst_return": -0.132089, "sufficient": true }, { 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628.5, "fair_value": 571.573077, "relative_strength": -1.040755, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.901819, "energy": 70.146525, "activity_lines": [ 659.4, 652.940909, 638.279762, 632.886559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 664.75, "volume": 90605, "typical_volume": 159456.15, "trend": 630.054167, "fair_value": 572.49375, "relative_strength": -1.035025, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.076028, "energy": 74.475815, "activity_lines": [ 661.783333, 656.1, 641.938095, 635.225269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 669.5, "volume": 211852, "typical_volume": 162416.1, "trend": 631.6625, "fair_value": 573.554647, "relative_strength": -1.470806, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.911371, "energy": 64.495542, "activity_lines": [ 665.083333, 659.590909, 645.810714, 637.770161 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 703.5, "volume": 337189, "typical_volume": 156123.45, "trend": 633.566667, "fair_value": 574.839103, "relative_strength": 3.246598, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 90.080611, "energy": 82.117582, "activity_lines": [ 678.05, 668.586364, 652.588095, 642.404839 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }