{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4238ddd4-9832-4346-9a20-ac92233f92f1", "symbol": "ORIENTPPR", "name": "Orient Paper & Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 67.051, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -11.753, "architecture_energy": 14.432, "architecture_maturity": 15.783, "architecture_confidence": 38.951, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.87, "rotation_up": 37.35, "upward_expansion": 25.7, "deceleration": 38.24, "rotation_down": 25.01, "downward_expansion": 53.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.954667, 17.614546, 17.652524, 17.672129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.51, "trend_reference": 18.039333, "distance_from_trend": 0.026091, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.657946, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.465923, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -11.691597, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.103198, "excess_performance": -0.059489, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.026091, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099594, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.465923, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00709, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116916, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051777, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.103198, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.460507, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2155081, "relative_activity": 1.552292, "balance": 2.460507, "dry_up": 1.222313, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.065162, "annualized_volatility": 0.378338, "from_high_reference": -0.400777, "from_low_reference": 0.396981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.039333, "fair_value_reference": 34.657946, "structural_low": 13.25, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011965, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.010062, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.153244, "worst_return": -0.189354, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.068008, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.133393, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.237254, "worst_return": -0.296407, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.206801, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.15279, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284564, "worst_return": -0.453132, 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.047256, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001493, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.377127, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050312, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.031438, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.648809, "energy": 50.311514, "activity_lines": [ 16.964667, 17.189637, 17.429476, 17.708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.58, "volume": 2642021, "typical_volume": 1461014.15, "trend": 18.333, "fair_value": 34.972134, "relative_strength": -14.779768, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.055337, "energy": 31.68949, "activity_lines": [ 17.132, 17.238, 17.452048, 17.648065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.370001, "volume": 1486920, "typical_volume": 1410581.65, "trend": 18.174, "fair_value": 34.810444, "relative_strength": -12.447586, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.404286, "energy": 8.987531, "activity_lines": [ 17.562, 17.425455, 17.54981, 17.650452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.51, "volume": 2155081, "typical_volume": 1388321.9, "trend": 18.039333, "fair_value": 34.657946, "relative_strength": -11.691597, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.752754, "energy": 14.432438, "activity_lines": [ 17.954667, 17.614546, 17.652524, 17.672129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }