{ "ticker": { "uuid": "423fd998-af0e-45bb-8e2e-983cb278f145", "symbol": "RITM", "name": "Rithm Capital Corp.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 65.154, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.332, "architecture_energy": 38.098, "architecture_maturity": 79.78, "architecture_confidence": 77.166, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.03, "rotation_up": 63.9, "upward_expansion": 34.76, "deceleration": 37.4, "rotation_down": 16.89, "downward_expansion": 23.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.71, 9.452818, 9.351402, 9.399693 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.19, "trend_reference": 9.630502, "distance_from_trend": 0.058096, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.622967, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058925, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.954288, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.025698, "excess_performance": -0.151323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058096, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047521, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058925, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.045291, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.109543, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084204, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025698, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.684661, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32366674, "relative_activity": 1.093041, "balance": 1.684661, "dry_up": 1.122999, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041804, "annualized_volatility": 0.271742, "from_high_reference": -0.14189, "from_low_reference": 0.240126 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.630502, "fair_value_reference": 9.622967, "structural_low": 8.216906, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.012922, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.007528, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.226594, "worst_return": -0.150671, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.062528, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008793, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.206881, "worst_return": -0.212507, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.121093, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.075094, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.291775, "worst_return": -0.04959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 9.186125, 9.110447, 9.220052, 9.394245 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.12, "volume": 28169028, "typical_volume": 37261372.3, "trend": 9.694168, "fair_value": 9.595132, "relative_strength": -17.672739, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.621903, "energy": 18.2286, "activity_lines": [ 9.181929, 9.121762, 9.205894, 9.353946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.88, "volume": 43524832, "typical_volume": 36324637.45, "trend": 9.666753, "fair_value": 9.607956, "relative_strength": -11.205161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 9.31027, "energy": 15.658629, "activity_lines": [ 9.419333, 9.266998, 9.265479, 9.365935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.19, "volume": 32366674, "typical_volume": 29611592.35, "trend": 9.630502, "fair_value": 9.622967, "relative_strength": -10.954288, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.332199, "energy": 38.098332, "activity_lines": [ 9.71, 9.452818, 9.351402, 9.399693 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }