{ "ticker": { "uuid": "424400e1-ee3e-4d3e-8132-144ee1a568d8", "symbol": "UTG", "name": "Unlimited Travel Group UTG AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.631, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 48.693, "architecture_energy": 30.096, "architecture_maturity": 31.282, "architecture_confidence": 67.4, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.71, "rotation_up": 35.5, "upward_expansion": 62.9, "deceleration": 82.64, "rotation_down": 25.66, "downward_expansion": 15.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.04, 23.101818, 22.605, 21.940645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 23.5, "trend_reference": 21.42, "distance_from_trend": 0.097105, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.627587, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.503751, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.051855, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.035242, "excess_performance": -0.026252, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.097105, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004533, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.503751, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080707, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.050519, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056954, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.035242, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.204224, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29638, "relative_activity": 0.414088, "balance": 0.204224, "dry_up": 0.385121, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.056956, "annualized_volatility": 0.46091, "from_high_reference": -0.123134, "from_low_reference": 0.525974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.42, "fair_value_reference": 15.627587, "structural_low": 15.4, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.03118, "positive_rate": 0.153846, "directional_follow_through": 0.153846, "median_excess_return": -0.037584, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.039063, "worst_return": -0.225877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0515, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.081803, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.050781, "worst_return": -0.18341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0375, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.142909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.28125, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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23.3, 22.797273, 21.707143, 21.411613 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 27323, "typical_volume": 102326.8, "trend": 21.386667, "fair_value": 15.258684, "relative_strength": -2.301559, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.775396, "energy": 60.037555, "activity_lines": [ 23.373334, 22.96, 21.925714, 21.530323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 23.200001, "volume": 25926, "typical_volume": 100539.1, "trend": 21.4, "fair_value": 15.351347, "relative_strength": -1.431255, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.56883, "energy": 60.380136, "activity_lines": [ 23.393334, 23.043637, 22.139524, 21.647312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.299999, "volume": 32023, "typical_volume": 91399.25, "trend": 21.38, "fair_value": 15.439581, "relative_strength": -6.788768, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.080467, "energy": 42.623946, "activity_lines": [ 23.066667, 22.958182, 22.257143, 21.705377 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.9, "volume": 22672, "typical_volume": 83479.95, "trend": 21.373334, "fair_value": 15.531661, "relative_strength": -5.619571, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.768099, "energy": 25.961553, "activity_lines": [ 22.946667, 22.981818, 22.415, 21.803441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 23.5, "volume": 29638, "typical_volume": 71574.2, "trend": 21.42, "fair_value": 15.627587, "relative_strength": -5.051855, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.692707, "energy": 30.095804, "activity_lines": [ 23.04, 23.101818, 22.605, 21.940645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }