{ "ticker": { "uuid": "424c6385-9419-4da7-ba30-7fa06867aada", "symbol": "RE", "name": "R.E.A. Holdings plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.417, "architecture_energy": 66.688, "architecture_maturity": 66.734, "architecture_confidence": 93.392, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 29.89, "upward_expansion": 16.5, "deceleration": 50.69, "rotation_down": 52.84, "downward_expansion": 78.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.091333, 1.091455, 31.042524, 51.962538 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.1, "trend_reference": 77.6405, "distance_from_trend": -0.985832, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 80.30875, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.986303, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.902255, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.991165, "excess_performance": -1.0424, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.985832, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332842, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.986303, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.351786, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.989023, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.045219, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.991165, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.924069, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110758, "relative_activity": 0.495015, "balance": 0.924069, "dry_up": 0.972636, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 10.649946, "annualized_volatility": 6.383949, "from_high_reference": -0.992029, "from_low_reference": 0.067961 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 77.6405, "fair_value_reference": 80.30875, "structural_low": 1.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.034067, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.027519, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.160194, "worst_return": -0.201439, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.069672, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.019062, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.306306, "worst_return": -0.455882, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.044984, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.096055, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.355856, "worst_return": -0.447761, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.041534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.014035, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.024823, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.093426, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04375, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.389222, 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -88.694173, "energy": 95.949519, "activity_lines": [ 23.023667, 59.701455, 82.733476, 93.863398 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.105, "volume": 15276, "typical_volume": 255636.4, "trend": 101.69, "fair_value": 83.459295, "relative_strength": -98.979171, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.006885, "energy": 92.632496, "activity_lines": [ 8.435667, 44.977909, 73.635881, 87.135559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.08, "volume": 4066, "typical_volume": 237750.0, "trend": 97.909333, "fair_value": 82.852436, "relative_strength": -99.000778, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.002105, "energy": 89.462068, "activity_lines": [ 1.099, 32.357, 65.1235, 80.644591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.07, "volume": 146788, "typical_volume": 221471.4, "trend": 94.045, "fair_value": 82.282372, "relative_strength": -98.974903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.963704, "energy": 89.354514, "activity_lines": [ 1.087, 21.787364, 57.243119, 74.396892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.09, "volume": 311363, "typical_volume": 230292.1, "trend": 90.114667, "fair_value": 81.717244, "relative_strength": -98.946047, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.547964, "energy": 88.37716, "activity_lines": [ 1.085, 13.374636, 49.91669, 68.399796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.08, "volume": 256277, "typical_volume": 222604.9, "trend": 86.034, "fair_value": 81.208141, "relative_strength": -98.948453, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.396916, "energy": 82.362567, "activity_lines": [ 1.082333, 7.067545, 43.1365, 62.655624 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.095, "volume": 192098, "typical_volume": 226438.7, "trend": 81.903833, "fair_value": 80.766442, "relative_strength": -98.925934, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.892526, "energy": 67.498742, "activity_lines": [ 1.085667, 3.089, 36.850214, 57.175688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.1, "volume": 110758, "typical_volume": 223746.55, "trend": 77.6405, "fair_value": 80.30875, "relative_strength": -98.902255, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.417337, "energy": 66.688088, "activity_lines": [ 1.091333, 1.091455, 31.042524, 51.962538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }