{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "424d1ddf-ff1a-44cc-a3ad-9d14748cee2b",
    "symbol": "SPXE",
    "name": "State Street SPDR S&P 500 UCITS ETF EUR Acc H",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 73.957,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 83.322,
    "architecture_energy": 58.095,
    "architecture_maturity": 63.114,
    "architecture_confidence": 62.643,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.22,
        "rotation_up": 52.15,
        "upward_expansion": 79.63,
        "deceleration": 68.82,
        "rotation_down": 27.49,
        "downward_expansion": 8.63
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        18.3244,
        18.237527,
        18.084552,
        17.751381
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 18.808001,
    "trend_reference": 17.381133,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.082093,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 14.529538,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294467,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -4.824345,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.11806,
    "excess_performance": -0.052832,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.082093,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.030861,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.294467,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.006952,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.048243,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.023148,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.11806,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.871618,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 99616,
      "relative_activity": 0.389344,
      "balance": 2.871618,
      "dry_up": 0.663188,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.019263,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.133061,
      "from_high_reference": -0.003919,
      "from_low_reference": 0.210452
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 17.381133,
      "fair_value_reference": 14.529538,
      "structural_low": 15.538,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 38,
        "median_return": 0.011378,
        "positive_rate": 0.710526,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.710526,
        "median_excess_return": 0.001818,
        "regime_survival": 0.789474,
        "best_return": 0.06444,
        "worst_return": -0.09147,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 13,
        "median_return": 0.034705,
        "positive_rate": 0.769231,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.769231,
        "median_excess_return": -0.020345,
        "regime_survival": 0.615385,
        "best_return": 0.099399,
        "worst_return": -0.072259,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.071063,
        "positive_rate": 0.75,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.75,
        "median_excess_return": 0.006244,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
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        "worst_return": -0.170083,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
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        "positive_rate": 0.75,
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        "median_excess_return": -0.015146,
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        "best_return": 0.197636,
        "worst_return": -0.109691,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.035709,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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      {
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-03-14",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.012682,
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
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        "return": -0.081038,
        "active": false
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        "end": "2025-06-06",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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      },
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
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        "typical_volume": 279322.0,
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        "fair_value": 14.394564,
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        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 60.541561,
        "energy": 54.033391,
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          17.554507
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 18.07,
        "volume": 363514,
        "typical_volume": 282976.9,
        "trend": 17.277533,
        "fair_value": 14.43709,
        "relative_strength": -5.493205,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Established expansion",
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        "direction": 51.27222,
        "energy": 48.743262,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 18.007999,
        "volume": 110275,
        "typical_volume": 276473.45,
        "trend": 17.320267,
        "fair_value": 14.480179,
        "relative_strength": -6.302248,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 46.698587,
        "energy": 40.145156,
        "activity_lines": [
          18.104666,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 18.808001,
        "volume": 99616,
        "typical_volume": 255856.0,
        "trend": 17.381133,
        "fair_value": 14.529538,
        "relative_strength": -4.824345,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 83.321898,
        "energy": 58.094923,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}