{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4259f372-595a-4ad0-8817-34e5c6497411", "symbol": "6819", "name": "Oriental System Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.583, "architecture_energy": 19.965, "architecture_maturity": 41.383, "architecture_confidence": 62.548, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.6, "rotation_up": 35.2, "upward_expansion": 57.53, "deceleration": 61.23, "rotation_down": 22.27, "downward_expansion": 14.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.019999, 38.94909, 40.618809, 37.87215 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 44.5, "trend_reference": 33.605, "distance_from_trend": 0.324208, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.232692, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.522268, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.071228, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.0, "excess_performance": 0.558628, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.324208, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.162602, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.522268, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.482528, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.090712, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.412988, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.0, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.123877, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 979785, "relative_activity": 0.879581, "balance": 1.123877, "dry_up": 0.375145, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.198876, "annualized_volatility": 0.997561, "from_high_reference": -0.39538, "from_low_reference": 1.282051 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.605, "fair_value_reference": 29.232692, "structural_low": 19.950001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.006211, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.012609, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.42942, "worst_return": -0.225092, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.018627, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.003489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.445328, "worst_return": -0.228782, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.350565, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.213182, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.066421, "worst_return": -0.136646, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 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"2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.213043, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.225092, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.094787, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11236, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.659841, "energy": 21.065745, "activity_lines": [ 37.076666, 41.443636, 39.310714, 35.384731 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.200001, "volume": 532829, "typical_volume": 1089617.0, "trend": 31.15, "fair_value": 28.863782, "relative_strength": 3.009813, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.592707, "energy": 17.462902, "activity_lines": [ 37.74, 40.315455, 39.715952, 35.94043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.849998, "volume": 179309, "typical_volume": 1094373.15, "trend": 31.778333, "fair_value": 28.946474, "relative_strength": 2.358979, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.234755, "energy": 11.06443, "activity_lines": [ 38.426666, 39.510909, 40.095952, 36.50172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.5, "volume": 372442, "typical_volume": 1111617.9, "trend": 32.258333, "fair_value": 29.0125, "relative_strength": -7.421065, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 12.275571, "energy": 8.810144, "activity_lines": [ 37.62, 38.209091, 39.968095, 36.741828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.099998, "volume": 139994, "typical_volume": 1070244.1, "trend": 32.821667, "fair_value": 29.101923, "relative_strength": -3.003903, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.014042, "energy": 8.343712, "activity_lines": [ 37.763332, 37.834545, 40.017857, 37.118709 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 44.5, "volume": 979785, "typical_volume": 1113923.05, "trend": 33.605, "fair_value": 29.232692, "relative_strength": 9.071228, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.583482, "energy": 19.965262, "activity_lines": [ 40.019999, 38.94909, 40.618809, 37.87215 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }